The 2022 MLB trade deadline is still more than a month away, but the rumor mill is already starting to heat up as the line between contenders and non-contenders becomes more clear.

Upcoming free agents on teams that have fallen out of the postseason hunt like Willson Contreras (Cubs), Andrew Benintendi (Royals), Josh Bell (Nationals), Jose Quintana (Pirates) and Zach Davies (Diamondbacks) are the most obvious trade chips, but there will undoubtedly be some controllable MLB talent moved as well.

On the contender side of things, prospects who are blocked at the MLB level or who are still multiple years away from reaching the majors when a team’s window is open now are the most likely trade pieces, though it’s much more difficult to predict exactly who will be moved.

Ahead we’ve highlighted each MLB team’s most likely player to be dealt ahead of the 2022 trade deadline, though there is still time for teams to flip between buyers and sellers in the coming weeks.

 

American League East

Baltimore Orioles: RHP Jorge Lopez

Slugger Trey Mancini is having a strong season in a contract year, but he means enough to the organization that it’s reasonable to expect him to stay put this summer. A year after struggling to a 6.07 ERA in 121.2 innings working primarily as a starter, Lopez has been lights-out in the bullpen, logging a 0.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 11 saves in 13 chances.

 

Boston Red Sox: SS Matthew Lugo

With Trevor Story signed long-term, Xander Bogaerts still potentially in the mix going forward, Jeter Downs joining the MLB roster and top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke rising the ranks, Lugo could be trade bait in the midst of a breakout year. The 21-year-old is hitting .289/.341/.539 with 33 extra-base hits in 56 games at High-A.

 

New York Yankees: RHP Juan Carela

Breakout prospects are often at the top of other teams’ target lists when trade season rolls around. Carela fits the bill in the Yankees system this year with a 2.31 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in 50.2 innings at Single-A. The 20-year-old began the year ranked outside the top 30 prospects in the organization, according to Baseball America.

 

Tampa Bay Rays: 2B Xavier Edwards

With three home runs in 1,173 plate appearances in the minors, Edwards is never going to be a power threat. However, his contact skills and speed give him leadoff-hitter potential. The 22-year-old is batting .324/.375/.487 in 80 plate appearances at Triple-A, and a change of scenery might be necessary for him to get a shot at an everyday role.

 

Toronto Blue Jays: SS/3B Jordan Groshans

With Bo Bichette entrenched at shortstop and Orelvis Martinez ticketed for third base, Groshans could be the centerpiece in a blockbuster deal. The 22-year-old has average-or-better tools across the board, and there’s untapped power potential in his 6’3″, 200-pound frame. Injuries have slowed his development, but he still has impact upside.