Shohei Ohtani's upcoming free agency is the most anticipated in MLB history, and the dollar amount of his next contract is sure to set records for baseball — and possibly all North American professional sports. The 28-year-old Los Angeles Angels two-way star is the most dynamic player in the game, leading baseball in WAR over the past three seasons by placing in the top 10 among pitchers and top 30 among position players, and he has shown no signs of slowing down early in his contract year.
How much will Ohtani get? What records will he aim for in his new deal? And which teams have the best chance of signing him? We polled 26 MLB executives, agents and insiders to find out.
How much could Ohtani get?
Here are the 26 responses from our panel, grouped into tiers by total dollars.
Less than $500 million (6): 4 years/$240 million; 8 years/$400 million; 8 years/$420 million; 9 years/$427.5 million; 13 years/$475 million; 12 years/$492 million
$500 million to $549 million (14): 9 years/$500 million; 10 years/$500 million; 10 years/$510 million; 10 years/$512 million; 12 years/$512 million; 11 years/$515 million; 11 years/$515 million; 12 years/$517 million; 10 years/$520 million; 11 years/$520 million, 11 years/$525 million; 12 years/$525 million; 11 years/$526 million; 12 years/$528 million
$550 million or more (6): 10 years/$550 million; 10 years/$550 million; 11 years/$550 million; 12 years/$580 million; 12 years/600 million; 11 years/$605 million
The 26 predictions ranged from as short as four years, in an attempt to maximize average annual value, to as long as 13 years, with the total payout ranging from $240 million over those four years to a whopping $605 million.
Since the three shorter AAV-friendly deals are really a different type of contract that skews the results a bit, let's focus first on the 23 answers that were nine years or longer.