Now that Opening Day is near and baseball fans have a decent understanding of the MLB landscape, it's fun to fire off a few predictions.
The World Baseball Classic has done a good job showcasing the game, but by next weekend its best players will be competing in the big leagues.
There are big roster changes each year from free-agent signings and blockbuster trades. We saw all of it this offseason, from Trea Turner signing with the Phillies, Dansby Swanson signing with the Cubs and Luiz Arraez being traded to the Marlins.
Let's take a look at five teams that will surprise and five that will disappoint. Teams that will surprise are projected to top their DraftKings Sportsbook over/under win total, and teams that will disappoint are projected to finish below their over/under.
Surprise: Miami Marlins (76.5)
The Marlins have relied on pitching as their strength for years, but this time around they made a significant upgrade to their lineup.
Adding AL batting champion Luis Arraez at second base and moving athletic All-Star Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center field, where he's never played, is a fascinating defensive idea. What it should certainly do is make the Marlins better at the plate.
Miami had the fourth-lowest OPS, tied for the third-lowest batting average and scored the third-fewest runs last season. Elite pitching won't overcome that type of putrid offensive output.
Yet a lineup with a top four of Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Arraez and Garrett Cooper, who was a first-time All-Star last year, offers real potential.
Are they good enough to win a stacked division against three teams better than them? That would take a miracle, or disaster, depending on which team for which you root.
But scrappy enough to compete for one of those wild-card spots? Absolutely.
Disappoint: Philadelphia Phillies (88.5)
Once this Phillies team is whole, it should be able to compete with anybody. That's what it showed in last season's improbable run to the World Series.
Bryce Harper's elbow injury last April kept him from playing the outfield. But since the National League had just adopted the designated hitter, Harper was able to play a key role in the pennant race.
The issue for the Phillies now is how well they survive without the two-time MVP, who underwent Tommy John surgery last November. He's not expected to be fully healthy until early July with a hopeful return date around the All-Star break.
Not having him in the field is one thing, but going so long without his bat is entirely different. Will the addition of Trea Turner be enough to cushion the blow? Are younger players like Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott ready to take the next step?
The answers could be yes, but those questions are there.
The Phillies are also sorting out their fifth starter behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker.