Everyone can stop wondering whether Carlos Correa will opt out of his deal with the Minnesota Twins. He's going to, which means it's time to start wondering about his possible landing spots.
It indeed would have been a surprise if Correa had opted in for a second season with the Twins in 2023. And as such, it was no surprise whatsoever when he revealed to Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día on Wednesday that he will do no such thing.
"With the year that I have had, my health and my being at the best moment of my career at 28, that is the right decision," the two-time All-Star shortstop said, as relayed by Brian Murphy of MLB.com.
Nobody expected Correa to sign with the Twins in the first place, much less on a smaller-than-expected contract at three years, $105.3 million. By declining the $70.2 million that was left on the deal, he's clearly indicating he thinks he can do better.
What Might It Cost to Sign Correa?
If not $70.2 million over two years, what will Correa be looking for in his next payday?
Only he and his people know for sure, but we can point to a January report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post that shed light on what they were looking for on last winter's free-agent market:
Though Correa didn't end up beating the 10-year, $325 million deal that Corey Seager signed with the Texas Rangers, it wouldn't be unreasonable for him to set his sights on those numbers all over again on the 2022-23 market.
For one thing, the 28-year-old won't have to worry about a qualifying offer this time. And while he's only younger than Seager by 148 days, he's technically in the same place now that Seager was last year: coming off his age-27 season.
And what an age-27 season it was. Correa started slow but salvaged a .291/.366/.467 slash line with a 140 OPS+ and 5.4 rWAR. His less-than-awesome defensive ratings, meanwhile, are a mere blip on a track record that includes Gold and Platinum Gloves.
Correa's career numbers include a 129 OPS+, 155 home runs and 39.5 rWAR, the latter of which is tops among shortstops since 2015. And while there's a certain amount of tarnish that can't be ignored, his 18 career playoff home runs must also be acknowledged.
As for which teams are candidates to sign Correa to a deal in the 10-year, $300 million neighborhood, we can speculate on 10 by way of available reporting and what our gut has to say. While we're at it, let's rank them according to how much sense they make for him based on their needs and apparent financial resources.
10-6: Twins, Atlanta, Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers
10. Minnesota Twins
Current Shortstop: Carlos Correa (5.4 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $118.8 Million
It's not out of the question that the Twins will retain Correa, especially in light of his seemingly sincere appreciation for the organization and the city. But if president of baseball operations Derek Falvey's repeated use of the word "creative" in regard to a new contract for Correa is any indication, the means to do a realistic deal with him likely aren't there.
9. Atlanta
Current Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (5.7 rWAR)
2023 Commitments: $164.3 Million
Correa's agent, Scott Boras, reportedly tried to engage Atlanta on the star shortstop after the MLB lockout ended last March. Swanson's looming free agency may be the only excuse Boras needs to try again, but it's hard to imagine Correa being in the team's price range now that it has hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of extensions on its books.