The top of the NBA is loaded with talented and title-hopeful squads, as a number of teams could realistically take home the Larry O'Brien Trophy next summer.
So, how can we tell the contenders from the pretenders?
Looking at the last 10 NBA champions, a few things stand out.
First, star power matters. Of the past 10 title winners, only one (the 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs) didn't possess a top-five-ish player at the time. There are exceptions, obviously (the 2003-04 Detroit Pistons are a prime example), but a general rule of thumb is that having a true MVP-level player (or two) on the roster matters.
Of the past 10 champions, these teams finished with an average ranking of 5.2 on offense and 5.6 on defense, yet only four teams (the 2018-19 Toronto Raptors, 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, 2014-15 Warriors and 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs) ranked in the top five in both categories. Every single Finals winner finished top-five in offense or defense, however, so being elite on at least one side of the ball is a must.
Keeping these factors in mind, while also examining the top 10 NBA title contenders (based on FanDuel betting odds) on an individual basis, which teams can we actually trust to be able to win the 2023 Finals?
Memphis Grizzlies
Contender Argument
Memphis' 56 total wins ranked second overall in the NBA last season, proving that this team had officially arrived.
Ja Morant could be an MVP candidate this year, although he may not even need to be since the Grizzlies went a sparkling 21-6 without him in the lineup and re-signed backup point guard Tyus Jones to a two-year, $29 million deal.
This is still a young team with a core that should all be better, and newly acquired veteran Danny Green could make a big playoff impact should he make a full recovery from a torn ACL and LCL suffered in the playoffs.
Pretender Argument
Memphis had its moments in a second-round series against the Golden State Warriors, although it was clear which team had the experience advantage. The Grizzlies just weren't on the same level as the eventual champions, and it showed.
Jaren Jackson Jr., the key to the team's defense, underwent foot surgery at the end of June and could be out until Christmas, as Memphis predicted a four-to-six-month recovery period. Rookies Jake LaRavia and David Roddy may be forced into roles immediately before Jackson can return.
The Grizz also lost De'Anthony Melton via trade and Kyle Anderson to free agency, two key pieces to the team's bench and perimeter defense last season.
Conclusion: Pretender
Memphis is coming, but the team is probably still a year away, especially with Jackson starting the season on the shelf.
Denver Nuggets
Contender Argument
Despite not having Jamal Murray for the entire season and getting just nine bad games out of Michael Porter Jr., Denver still finished with the No. 6 offense last season, a testament to just how incredibly good Nikola Jokic is.
With all three, this has the potential to be the highest-scoring unit in the NBA, especially with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope now on board and second-year guard Bones Hyland likely making a leap.
While most of the core pieces are still pretty young, this is a group that's already made the playoffs the past four years and reached the West Finals in 2020. The experience, and talent, should both be there this season.
Pretender Argument
As good as this offense can be, and with Jokic clearly checking the box as a top-five player, the defense has some concerns.
A 15th-ranked defense from last season may have only gotten marginally better with Caldwell-Pope and newly signed Bruce Brown, and it could have even worse rim protection numbers if DeAndre Jordan is actually in the rotation.
Michael Porter Jr.'s back and overall durability will forever be a concern, as he's averaged just 31.3 games per season in his four-year career.
Conclusion: Contender
Jokic could establish himself as the NBA's best player this season, with Murray and Porter possessing top-25 potential. As long as the defense is even slightly improved, this is a title-worthy offense.