With four weeks remaining in the regular season, here are my top-10 rookie rankings for the American League and National League. Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez and Braves right-hander Spencer Strider top my rankings and are the current front-runners for the Rookie of the Year awards, with Strider in a close race with teammate Michael Harris II for the NL honor. Those three young standouts are part of a strong rookie class that’s making its mark on the postseason races and breaking new ground for first-year players.
These lists are solely based on performance and production this season; future potential and expectations are not considered. A lot of intriguing rookies did not make the cut because of that. Let’s get to the lists!
WAR numbers are according to Baseball-Reference and as of Sept. 7.
National League
1. Spencer Strider, RHP, Braves
Age: 23
WAR: 3.5 ERA+: 155
Strider was a fourth-round pick in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Clemson, pitched at three minor-league levels in 2021, and began the 2022 season in the Braves’ bullpen before transitioning to the rotation and becoming a top starter (9-4, 2.67 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 114 2/3 innings) thanks to a triple-digit fastball and a wipeout slider that gets better with every start. Strider ranks in the 97th percentile in fastball velocity, the 94th percentile in extension and the 99th percentile in strikeout percentage. His desire to be the best and his interest in studying other top pitchers — including learning Jacob deGrom’s slider and borrowing from the pitching mechanics of Gerrit Cole and Walker Buehler — have helped him find success so quickly. To me, Strider edges out Harris for the NL rookie award because he’s been so dominant as a starting pitcher. Oh, and because he has an elite mustache as well.
2. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves
Age: 21
WAR: 4.3 OPS+: 143
Harris is another example of why MLB needs two rookie awards for each league: one for the top position player and one for the top pitcher. Harris certainly is the best rookie position player in the NL and has been a game-changer since debuting for Atlanta on May 28, when the Braves were 8 1/2 games behind the Mets in the NL East. (That gap got as high as 10 1/2 games before the Braves started rolling and chipping away at it, with Harris playing a crucial part, and now Atlanta is tied with the Mets atop the division.)
Harris is an elite defensive center fielder who will win a Gold Glove Award someday. He’s a five-tool center fielder, the type general managers dream about, with well-above-average hitting, running, power, fielding and throwing tools, not to mention strong intangibles. Harris leads all NL rookies with 98 hits, 15 home runs and 16 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). He has reached base at a 35 percent clip and slugged .533. His high energy and enthusiasm, along with his late-game clutch hitting, have quickly made him one of the best overall center fielders in the sport, which compelled the Braves to sign him to an eight-year, $72 million contract extension last month.
3. Brendan Donovan, INF/OF, Cardinals
Age: 25
WAR: 2.6 OPS+: 122
Donovan’s versatility and ability to get on-base have been invaluable to the Cardinals this season. He has played all four infield positions as well as left and right field. He’s reached base at a 39 percent clip and provided 21 extra-base hits in 310 at-bats. A left-handed hitter, Donovan protects the Cardinals from injuries all over the diamond and plays with passion.
4. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Marlins
Age: 24
WAR: 1.8 ERA+: 171
Cabrera, the latest top pitching prospect developed by the Marlins, has delivered this season with a 2.39 ERA in nine starts. He’s yielded only 27 hits in 49 innings while striking out 55 batters. His repertoire includes a two-seam and four-seam fastball, along with a changeup, curveball and slider, and opposing batters have hit under .155 against all of them except the sinker. That’s impressive and speaks to his overwhelming stuff. Just wait until Cabrera’s command and control arrive. He has an unlimited ceiling.
5. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Reds
Age: 24
WAR: 1.6 ERA+: 114
Lodolo posted a 5.81 ERA in his first six starts, but the second half of the season has been a different story: He has logged a 2.89 ERA in eight starts and become the Reds’ best starting pitcher since they dealt Luis Castillo at the trade deadline. Lodolo’s fastball at the top of the zone continues to improve, which enhances his plus slider. He’s always been more of an East-West pitcher, so being able to get outs in all quadrants of the strike zone has been one of the main reasons for his success in the second half.