Usually, this Friday column begins with the presentation of a statistic, a query, a table, and then discussion of the players within. But sometimes we can all be forgiven for just wondering what’s going on with that stud pitcher on our teams. So the question here is simple: Which top starting pitchers going into the season are struggling mightily, and how likely are they to rebound?

So, uh, here’s the query! Here are all the starting pitchers in the top 100 (as judged by Yahoo’s pre-season ranks) who have been outside the top 250 so far this season (again judged by Yahoo, for simplicity).

As with most queries, this produces a list that is too cumbersome to use as a complete roadmap. Not all of these are really struggling at the same level, anyway. Yes, Shane Bieber’s strikeout rate is far below even the lower projections we had here using Stuff+, but he’s probably not inspiring the same dread as some of the other pitchers on this list. Yu Darvish seems fine! Give Logan Gilbert a win or two more and he’s not on this list at all.

But there are some massively struggling pitchers on this list who deserve more extensive analysis. Turns out, top 500 could be a better benchmark for the true strugglers.

Sandy Alcántara, Marlins

Just below the surface, it’s hard to spot anything wrong with the Marlins’ ace. he’s throwing harder, getting more whiffs, and strikeout and walk rates are better than his career numbers. Even poking down further doesn’t offer many clues, as his fastball and changeup Stuff+ numbers are right in line with what they’ve been in the past. The slider is a little down in terms of Stuff+, but it’s added more drop recently and the model likes it.

It doesn’t seem to be a function of movement or mechanics. Instead, this is an old-school tale. He’s stranding many fewer runners than he did before (60.3 percent now, 73.6 percent for career) and allowing more hits on balls in play (.301 this year, .268 for his career before). The first should regress in a good way … the latter? He’s never struck out many batters, and last year he generated more balls into the shift than all but one pitcher in the big leagues. He allowed a .207 batting average on those balls into the shift, and he doesn’t get the benefit of that anymore.

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The good news is that he’s physically fine. The bad news is that he probably won’t be as good as he was last year again without the shift. Expect more like a 3.5+ ERA once he starts stranding runners again rather than the lower threes ERAs you see with lower BABIP projections.

Dylan Cease, White Sox

Here, the stuff is a little bit down, as Cease has lost a tick on the fastball, lost some ride on the four-seam, and some drop on the slider, and it’s manifested in fewer whiffs and strikeouts. That, coupled with ongoing command issues, and some poor luck (his strand rate is also lower than league average) has led to a couple of disasterpieces surrounded by much better work. Trying to avoid the pitfalls by careful schedule work might have reduced some of the pain (four innings, six earned at home against the surging Rays) but not all (five innings, seven earned at the Royals).