Yes, it's still early — but as the calendar turns to May, it's impossible to deny that the top of the MLB standings looks very different from what was expected going into the season. In fact, only one of the teams our experts predicted to win their divisions ahead of Opening Day is in first place right now.
Which of the fast starts is most surprising, what's powering the rising teams and how long will their unexpected stays atop their divisions last? Let's dig in with a look at each of the six early division leaders, including a surprise score and snapshot of what's powered them to the top — and if it will continue.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
Surprise score: 7
Signature game: Down 3-0 against the White Sox this past Saturday, the Rays exploded for 10 runs in the seventh inning, hitting three home runs and two doubles and stealing three bases along the way. The Rays hit just 139 home runs last season; they finished April with 61.
Key statistic: Those 61 home runs were not only a record for April, but only two teams since 2010 have hit more home runs in any month (the Yankees in August of 2021 and the Blue Jays in September of 2021). The Rays had four players hit seven home runs in April; 17 teams had no players hit seven.
Key player: After a hot start, Jeffrey Springs went down with an injury requiring Tommy John surgery, so the eventual return of Tyler Glasnow from an oblique injury will be vital for the rotation depth. Glasnow had his own TJ surgery in 2021, returned at the end of last season to make two starts, but then injured his oblique throwing a live batting practice session at the end of February. Even without Springs, a rotation with Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Zach Eflin should rate among the best in the majors.
Biggest concern: That the Rays just built up this record against a soft early schedule. Indeed, they lost series to the Blue Jays and Astros, the two toughest teams they've played so far. Their next 39 games are now against teams that began May with winning records.
Assessment: Look, no matter the schedule, it was one of the most dominant Aprils we've ever seen (their plus-102 differential set an April record). The offense will certainly slow down, but they have so many players off to hot starts and what looks like real improvement from the likes of Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz and Josh Lowe (and a healthy Brandon Lowe, who hit 39 home runs in 2021), that this looks like a deep, lethal lineup.
On the other hand, they've played just seven games within the best division in baseball. Even with fewer division games with the new schedule, that still leaves 45 games against AL East opponents. The Orioles and Blue Jays are off to great starts as well. In other words, don't hand the division to the Rays just yet. Also, let's see if the Rays can keep their pitchers healthy. As good as they are at developing pitchers and finding guys like Springs and Rasmussen, they also have had a difficult time keeping pitchers healthy. Rookie Taj Bradley impressed in his call-up, and guys like Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming have started in the past, so there is depth here if needed. I'd pick the Rays to win the division at this point, but this still looks like a potential four-team race — and, heck, don't discount the Red Sox either.
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
Surprise score: 4
Signature game: The Twins beat the Yankees 6-2 last week with four runs in the sixth inning on two-run home runs from Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach. What made that game so special? It clinched their first season-series win over the Yankees since 2001.
Key statistic: The Twins led the majors in strikeout rate in April at 26.9%. No, not hitting strikeout rate; pitching strikeout rate. Yes, the Twins — not exactly an organization known for power pitching the past few decades. The rotation ranked 20th in the majors last season in strikeout rate and has improved to second this season as several starters, including new addition Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, added a sweeper to their repertoire.
Key player: Buxton and Joey Gallo have led the way on offense — two risky players to rely upon given Buxton's injury history and Gallo's history of sub-.200 batting averages. That means Carlos Correa likely needs to start hitting. His strikeout and walk rates were normal in April, but his hard-hit rate was down and his average exit velocity was down more than 3 mph from 2022. It's too early to be overly concerned, but the Twins need him to be a middle-of-the-order bat.