It's only May, but the 2023 MLB trade deadline (August 1) is just around the corner. And with the legitimate contenders starting to separate themselves from the pretenders, a line is beginning to form in the sand between the trade block's buyers and sellers.
We entered the season with Bryan Reynolds and Ian Happ among the top high-profile players who could be on the move. However, both of those outfielders signed contract extensions in April, so could we be headed for a much less noisy deadline day than usual?
That largely depends on the Shohei Ohtani situation.
If the Angels do trade him, it might break the internet. But if they don't make Ohtani available to the masses, who actually is the biggest name on the move 12 weeks from now?
A lot can and will change between now and then, but we've got some early, high-level predictions of what will transpire this summer.
Rather than specific trade proposals, we're looking more at stuff like "White Sox have a fire sale," "Milwaukee trades for a top pitcher" and "Angels refuse to trade away Ohtani."
Predictions are presented in no particular order. Statistics/records are current through the start of play Tuesday.
Compared to 2021 and 2022, the 2023 Trade Deadline Will Be Quite Quiet
Over the past two years, we've witnessed an absolute flurry of trade-deadline moves. There were 38 deals struck between August 1 and August 2 last summer, this coming after a 2021 campaign in which there were 40 trades in the final 72 hours before the deadline.
This year, however, the have-nots have not much to offer.
The Oakland A's, Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals pretty well cleaned out what was left in their cupboards last season. We might see the Reds try to move Wil Myers or the Nats part with impending free agents Jeimer Candelario or Carl Edwards Jr., but there's little else of any interest that any of those three teams would be willing to trade away.
Colorado has some intriguing names hitting free agency this offseason—foremost among them C.J. Cron—but the Rockies repeatedly in recent years have shown they might not actually understand how the trade deadline works or how it could help a perpetually rebuilding team.
Detroit would love to get out from under the next four years of Javier Báez's deal, but no one will want that albatross. Kansas City has a few good bullpen arms to offer, but that's about it.
Save for the one we'll mention in the next section, none of the teams bad enough to embrace a fire sale actually have the roster/contract situations necessary to conduct one. That could change if, say, the San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners or St. Louis Cardinals continue to scuffle for the next three months and decide to throw in the towel on this season.
However, right now it's looking like we have the recipe for a quieter trade deadline than usual.
The White Sox Go All-In on the Rebuild
Remember the 2021 trade deadline?
Sitting some 30 games below .500, the Texas Rangers traded away Joey Gallo, Ian Kennedy, Kyle Gibson, Joely Rodriguez and Hans Crouse in hopes of speeding up an inevitable rebuilding process.
The Cubs and Nationals were having somewhat respectable seasons, just a few games below .500, but they, too, read the writing on the wall and embraced fire sales. Washington parted ways with Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Daniel Hudson, Jon Lester, Brad Hand, Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison. Chicago steered even harder into the rebuild, trading away Joc Pederson, Andrew Chafin, Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Tepera, Javier Báez, Trevor Williams, Kris Bryant, Craig Kimbrel and Jake Marisnick.