The NBA offseason has already begun for 22 of the 30 franchises. With a new collective bargaining agreement agreed a week ago, the NBA and NBPA averted a lockout while instituting several new rules to curtail the highest spenders. The changes will shock the system, especially some free agents expecting a big payday.
Stars will still get compensated, but money may not flow as easily this offseason as franchises try to adapt. Will that impact All-Stars like James Harden and Kyrie Irving? It might limit their options.
In Part I of three, who are the best available free-agent ball-handling guards, and where might they land this summer?
James Harden Stays in Philadelphia or Returns to Houston?
James Harden provided a reminder of his star status in the Philadelphia 76ers' Game 1 win over the Boston Celtics. The veteran guard will be 34 by the start of next season, and while he has a $35.6 million player option for 2023-24, he's all but sure to explore free agency.
The Sixers can max him out at a starting salary of $46.9 million (up to $210 million over four years, limited by the over-38 rules and assuming a $134 million salary cap), but will they commit that much for that long?
The franchise can afford a significant tax bill in the immediate term since Tobias Harris will come off after this next season (heading into his final year at $39.3 million). Still, keeping payroll down won't be easy, with over $50 million per season committed to Joel Embiid, and Tyrese Maxey expecting a healthy extension this offseason.
A shorter deal for Harden may appeal more to the franchise, but that may drive him to look elsewhere, including a potential return to the Houston Rockets. Houston has the cap room to offer a four-season $201.7 million maximum contract. While Philadelphia can beat that, that may be more than the franchise is willing to provide—and with no state taxes in Texas, Harden may net more with the Rockets.
If so, look for Houston to trade away some of their younger, developing players while trying to forge a competitive roster around Harden. Compared to Philadelphia, Houston has greater financial flexibility but no one on par with Embiid. But then, does Harden enjoy what he has with the 76ers, or is he looking to return to a comfortable Houston environment?
Kyrie Irving Needs Dallas; Dallas Needs Irving
At first glance, the brief marriage between the Dallas Mavericks and Kyrie Irving ended poorly. The team didn't even make the play-in tournament. But the franchise knew it probably gave up too much to the Brooklyn Nets in the short term to have a viable postseason. The goal was to pair All-Star Luka Doncic with a second playmaker, and Irving is that. The challenge will be filling around the duo, assuming Irving returns.
Irving is an unrestricted free agent but how many teams will be willing to invest in the mercurial guard? He's already 31 years old and has a reputation for being a challenge to manage.
Most of the teams that have spending power have younger, impressionable rosters or are just poor fits, like the San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz. The franchises that need a veteran guard to help make a postseason run just don't have the kind of money Irving has earned.
The one that could, the Los Angeles Lakers, would need to pivot away from several of its own free agents and, even then, wouldn't be able to reach the maximum figure the Mavericks can offer ($46.9 million for up to five years).
Dallas gave up too much to acquire Irving to let him walk now. Irving needs the Mavericks because they may be the only team willing to pay him what he feels he's worth. In theory, it's Dallas with the leverage. The Mavs may concede on price but in exchange for a shorter deal.