The 2023 Major League Baseball season is already underway, but that doesn't make it too late for one last look at the year's biggest rebound candidates.
Though there are more than 10 such candidates, that's the number we settled on for this list.
There were two things that drew us to these players, the first of which was obvious: they all fell short of expectations in 2022. Some had good but not quite great years. Others had just plain bad years. Either way, there's room to improve in '23.
The real key here was the second thing, which we'll call tangible reasons for optimism. These are mostly related to on-field, performance-based matters, but some off-the-field events also entered into the equation.
Going in alphabetical order, we'll start with five hitters and end with five pitchers.
RF Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta
Age: 25
2022 Stats: 119 G, 533 PA, 15 HR, 29 SB, .266 AVG, .351 OBP, .413 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Admirable though it was that Ronald Acuña Jr. returned to action less than a year after he sustained a season-ending ACL tear in July 2021, he clearly wasn't himself.
Just going off his results, his 114 OPS+ for last season was well short of the norm of 138 he established through his first four seasons. As his average sprint was down about a foot-per-second from 2021, he didn't have his usual speed either.
Why There's Hope for 2023
Even setting aside that Acuña is going into 2023 fully healthy, there are also the indications that he was more like himself than last year's results let on.
He was hypothetically one of the unluckiest right-handed hitters of 2022, which is believable in context of how his peripheral batting metrics were mostly solid. His zone discipline and penchant for hard contact were notably still there, resulting in an xwOBA that ranked in the 95th percentile.
As for Acuña's health, the big tell there will be if his speed rebounds to its formerly elite levels. It's early yet, but it's a good sign that he's already touched 30 feet-per-second on a sprint from home to first.
3B Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 32
2022 Stats: 136 G, 565 PA, 21 HR, 2 SB, .196 AVG, .329 OBP, .384 SLG
What Went Wrong in 2022
Between 2018 and 2021, Max Muncy was the only hitter to have three seasons of at least 35 home runs and a 130 OPS+. He was clearly not that guy in 2022, in part thanks to a lingering elbow injury.
Worse, Muncy wasn't even that unlucky. At .208, his expected batting average was one of the worst in the majors.
Why There's Hope for 2023
It helps that Muncy exited last season on an upswing. Of the 21 home runs he hit in 2022, 17 came in his last 84 games.
Muncy otherwise retained some of the hallmarks of his earlier success, including a chase rate in the 100th percentile and marks for exit velocity, hard contact and barrels that were all above average. Really the only downside was that he probably hit too many balls in the air.
The shift ban could be just what the left-handed swinger needs to solve that. He's understandably happy about not having to worry about always having to hit the ball over or through a wall of defenders, hinting that it "simplifies the approach a little bit."