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The Premier League title race is about to get real for Arsenal. For the first time since Arsene Wenger's "Invincibles" won the club's last title in 2003-04, Arsenal feel like a team that can go all the way and take the trophy to the Emirates. But manager Mikel Arteta's side have only done the easy part so far.
Make no mistake: to be five points clear at the top of table, having suffered just one defeat in 14 games, is a genuine achievement for Arteta and his young team. Arsenal deserve to be leading the race as the Premier League resumes after six-week pause for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, but their impressive start to the season is now just money in the bank. We are about to see how far it will take them.
Since the Premier League began in 1992-93, there have been 30 completed seasons and the team that sits top on Christmas Day just has the edge. Sixteen teams have been top at Christmas and ended up as champions, with 14 clubs failing to go the distance. Arsenal were second to Manchester United on Christmas Day 2003 and went on to be champions.
It is a slightly skewed historically statistic this time around, with Arsenal only having played 14 games due to the World Cup shutdown. By now, teams have usually played 17 games, so it is perhaps unfair to burden Arteta's team with the pressure of having to live up to the "Christmas leaders" tag. But by starting so well and maintaining their form, Arsenal are unquestionably in the title race.
Reigning champions Manchester City are still the favourites with every bookmaker, despite being five points adrift of the leaders, yet Pep Guardiola's team will have little margin for error if Arsenal continue as they left off. This is the challenge for Arsenal, however, and the picture is no longer quite as clear as it was when they wrapped up for the World Cup with a 2-0 win at Wolves in mid-November.
The biggest concern for Arteta will be the loss of striker Gabriel Jesus, who could be sidelined for up to four months with a medial ligament injury he suffered with Brazil at the World Cup. The 25-year-old has scored five goals for the Gunners since his £45 million transfer from Man City in the summer and while his strike rate may not be hugely impressive, it is his contribution as a team player and the winning mentality he has brought from his time at the Etihad that make him so important to Arteta's team.