The Cleveland Guardians swept the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend in their best-of-three American League Wild Card Series, thereby advancing to the next round of the postseason. The Guardians can thank their pitching staff for the wins. Cleveland's arms limited the Rays to one run in 24 innings; they struck out 29 batters and they surrendered only nine hits and six walks. They did not give up a single extra-base hit throughout the 15-inning marathon that capped the series. 

It's been said that no good deed goes unpunished.  Guardians pitchers are learning that for themselves. Their reward for shutting down the Rays is a new, more burdensome challenge: figuring out how to navigate Aaron Judge ahead of Tuesday, the start of their best-of-five Division Series versus the New York Yankees. 

Judge, of course, just authored one of the greatest offensive seasons in league history. Not only did he homer 62 times, breaking the longstanding AL and franchise single-season records, he hit .311/.425/.686 and nearly won the Triple Crown. To put it another way, Judge's worst month came in June, when he posted a .922 OPS. How good is a .922 OPS? He would've ranked third in the majors among qualifiers if that had been his full-season mark, behind only Yordan Alvarez and Paul Goldschmidt.

No gameplan formed against Judge has prospered to date, but the Guardians have to try if they want to advance. So, just how might they approach Judge's at-bats? Let's break down what his seasonal data suggests they should (and shouldn't) do. 

 

1. Does he like to swing on the first pitch? 

Given that Judge walked 111 times during the regular season, you might expect the answer to be "no." On the contrary, his swing rate on first pitches (31.7 percent) was more aggressive than the league-average mark, putting him in company with the likes of Willy Adames, Yuli Gurriel, Hunter Renfroe, and Trey Mancini. Take a gander at the heat map below and you'll notice that Judge's preferred first-pitch location is often middle-in. He's willing to pull the trigger throughout the zone, however.