Savvy shoppers know that it's never too early to start planning ahead. There are five weeks remaining in Major League Baseball's regular season, meaning we're at least two months away from the start of free agency. Still, with Labor Day upcoming, we figured this would be a good time to preview the winter's class — and to give fans of noncompetitive teams some hope about who might be on their roster next year.

Below, you'll find our first draft of the class' top 20 free agents. As always, the rankings are based on an unscientific combination of a player's true talent level (how they can reasonably be forecasted to perform in the future)  and their expected annual average value. Players with options were included (or excluded) using the following rule of thumb: all team options are exercised; all player options are not. That's not realistic — some players will opt in and some teams will opt out — but it's a fairer solution than leaving it up to our read on a situation this far out.

Do note that these rankings are subject to change between now and the official publication of our top 50 list. There are games left to be played, after all.

Let's get to the list.

 

1. Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees

Judge raised eyebrows in the spring when he rejected an extension offer worth $213 million. Front-office types were quick to point to his advanced age (he'll turn 31 next April) and his injury history as reasons he should've taken the deal. As it turns out, he was right to bet on himself. He's in the midst of possibly the finest walk season in history, a campaign that could soon double as the league's first 60-homer effort in two decades. That Judge is closing in on Roger Maris while primarily playing center field speaks to his unusual blend of power and athleticism. He isn't Richie Sexson or Kyle Blanks or some other lumbering giant of the past. He isn't a one-year wonder, either. The only person to accumulate more WAR than Judge during the Pandemic Era is Paul Goldschmidt — and he might win the National League Triple Crown. Judge can't change his age or his injury history, but he's done everything within his power (literally) to boost his stock. He should be rewarded handsomely for it come winter.

 

2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals

Arenado has reportedly signaled that he doesn't intend to opt out of his current contract with St Louis. Fair enough. Our blanket treatment of these situations means that he gets a spot on here regardless. Arenado is in the midst of a phenomenal season, one that's being overshadowed only by teammate Paul Goldschmidt. He's a little older than some of the position players to follow, so you could argue he should be lower on the list. The rise in popularity of the short-term, AAV-heavy deal makes us put him here anyway. But again, none of this may matter on the final list if Arenado decides he's content with his situation. 

 

3. Trea Turner, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers

Statistically, Turner has been one of the handful of best position players in the majors during the Pandemic Era. It's easy to understand how. He remains a tolerable shortstop option who has consistently hit for a high average while providing above-average power and speed production. To wit, if 20/20 seasons were 19/20 seasons, they wouldn't sound as cool but Turner would have three of them instead of one. (He's on the cusp of a second.) There are some drawbacks to Turner's game worth mentioning: He might have to move across the bag at some point during his next contract, and he's whiffed and chased more frequently this season than usual. Neither spells doom for him, at least not yet; both do merit monitoring, however.

 

4. Jacob deGrom, RHP, New York Mets

Although deGrom went more than a year in between appearances because of various injuries, and although he's yet to crack 200 combined innings since the start of the 2020 season, he's reaffirmed that he intends to opt out this winter. With the way he's performed since returning to the Mets rotation this month, why not? What's clear is that he feels confident he can fetch more than the two years and $65 million remaining on his contract. (Half of that is tied up in a club option.) What's unclear is if deGrom will be able to secure his payday as part of a long-term contract, or if the combination of his age (he's 34) and his recent absences will ferry him toward a shorter, AAV-heavy deal, similar to the one Max Scherzer signed last winter.