The Atlanta Falcons have been stuck in a dark hole of losing seasons, in part because they were dealing with significant salary-cap issues that prevented them from making the adjustments necessary to dig out of said hole. Finally, however, the Falcons had money to spend this summer and that is exactly what they did.

Combine a much-improved roster with both an easy schedule (at least on paper) and an extremely weak NFC South (also on paper) and expectations have suddenly spiked in Atlanta. Is head coach Arthur Smith primed for his first playoff berth in year 3 at the helm? Let’s take a look at some of the odds and best bets to be made on the Atlanta Falcons in 2023. 

Atlanta Falcons breakdown

2022 record: 7-10

2022 ATS record: 9-8 

2022 O/U record: 7-10 

Key players in: Jessie Bates III (S), David Onyemata (DT), Kaden Elliss (LB), Calais Campbell (DE), Taylor Heinicke (QB), Bud Dupree (LB), Mack Hollins (WR), Scotty Miller (WR) 

Key players out: Marcus Mariota (QB), Isaiah Oliver (CB), Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) 

2023 NFL Draft class: Bijan Robinson (RB), Matthew Bergeron (G), Zach Harrison (DE), Clark Phillips III (CB), DeMarcco Hellams (S), Jovaughn Gwyn (G)

Atlanta Falcons 2023 NFL season odds

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook 

Atlanta Falcons Super Bowl odds

The Falcons are +6000 to win Super Bowl LVIII. That puts them at #20 on the list of favorites. 

Atlanta Falcons NFC Championship odds

Atlanta is +2800 to win the NFC, making it the #9 choice in between the Giants (+2500) and Bears (+3000). 

Atlanta Falcons NFC South odds

At +215, the Falcons are the second favorites to win the NFC South (New Orleans is a +120 favorite). They are ahead of Carolina (+400) and Tampa Bay (+800).

Atlanta Falcons win total odds 

The Falcons’ win quota is 8.5 games, with the over priced as a -120 favorite and the under coming in with +100 odds. They are +550 to finish with exactly 9 victories. 

Atlanta Falcons 2023 schedule

Week 1: vs Carolina Panthers 

Week 2: vs Green Bay Packers

Week 3: at Detroit Lions

Week 4: vs Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Week 5: vs Houston Texans

Week 6: vs Washington Commanders

Week 7: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 8: at Tennessee Titans

Week 9: vs Minnesota Vikings 

Week 10: at Arizona Cardinals 

Week 11: BYE 

Week 12: vs New Orleans Saints 

Week 13: at New York Jets 

Week 14: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 15: at Carolina Panthers 

Week 16: vs Indianapolis Colts

Week 17: at Chicago Bears 

Week 18: at New Orleans Saints 

Atlanta Falcons 2022 season recap

It was a transitional year in Atlanta, as longtime quarterback Matt Ryan departed. The Marcus Mariota experiment was not a complete disaster considering that the Falcons were in mathematical contention in the NFC South (that’s not saying a lot!) almost the entire season, at the same time it was far from a success. Mariota got benched after 13 games, during which he compiled a 5-8 record. Rookie Desmond Ridder, a third-round draft pick, took over for the final 4 games and went 2-2 during that closing stretch. However, the 2 wins came at the expense of a terrible Arizona squad and a Tampa Bay team that had already clinched the division and was resting its starters. Thus the jury remains out on Ridder heading into the 2023 campaign. 

Atlanta Falcons 2023 NFL season predictions

The Falcons have been bad for many years now (5 losing seasons in a row). At long last, though, a playoff berth seems like a real possibility for this franchise. Most of the futures odds have Atlanta somewhere near the middle of the pack, including a +105 price to make the playoffs.

Here are a couple of my predictions for the Atlanta Falcons in 2023. 

Best bet: Atlanta Falcons to win the NFC South (+215)

The NFC South was the worst division in football last season and there is no reason to think that will change in 2023. To say that the door is open would be a gross understatement. New Orleans has the best odds to take advantage of the post-Tom Brady era in Tampa Bay, but I think it’s Atlanta that will capitalize. The Falcons certainly have the best value of the bunch at +215. They added Bijan Robinson to their already potent running game and – having emerged from salary-cap purgatory – went on a spending spree this offseason to improve the defensive side of the ball. Combine that with the easiest record in the entire NFL in terms of opponents’ 2022 winning percentage and Falcons fans have plenty of reasons for optimism. 

Atlanta Falcons season record predictions

I obviously want to correlate this pick with the above prediction of Atlanta winning its division. A record of 9-8 may be good enough to get the job done in the moribund NFC South (heck, Tampa Bay won it last year at 8-9!), but I will go a little bit bolder and back the Falcons to reach double-figures in the win column. At +600, an exact finishing mark of 10-7 has stellar value.