The NHL season is roughly 10 percent complete. That leaves plenty of room for hot teams to lose steam or for losing teams to right the ship. Still, having things go wrong early in the season can be devastating. For one, it creates a sizable hole to climb out of the rest of the way. Other teams have a head start up the standings, and little margin for error exists the rest of the way for those off to a slow start.
The consternation and tension this creates early within the media, the fanbase or even the locker room can be a major issue too. First impressions, for better or worse, affect perception. A three-game losing streak would be considered merely a bump in the road in January, but at the start of the season it can lead to beliefs that the sky is falling.
For some teams, a poor start could be a fluke occurrence. For others, it might foreshadow a terrible season to come. Parsing out the difference could be what determines whether a general manager stays calm versus one who starts to make changes. And, of course, a look under the hood should tell fans whether they should wait and see or if it’s time to panic.
Here are five NHL teams who have underachieved to start the season and how worried the fans of each should be.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Record: 4-4-1
Background: The Penguins finished last season with 103 points and came within one goal of advancing past the Rangers in the first round despite missing a bevy of important players. General manager Ron Hextall successfully retained most of that roster for 2022-23, re-signing Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Bryan Rust, Rikard Rakell and Danton Heinen. Despite this, Pittsburgh has struggled out of the gate.
Why It’s Time to Panic
Penguins goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith have been steady, combining for a .914 save percentage through those nine games. Despite this, the Penguins have given up over three goals per game and rank joint-22nd in the NHL by that metric.
The culprit here is the defense. All of Letang, Jeff Petry, Chad Ruhwedel, Brian Dumoulin and Pierre-Olivier Joseph have struggled immensely. John Marino, traded to New Jersey in the offseason, is one of the better shutdown defensemen in the NHL, and the Penguins miss his presence; Evolving Hockey puts him in the 78th percentile by defensive impact over the previous three seasons.
That so many defensemen are struggling indicates that this problem is beyond one or two players having a rough month. The Penguins have evolved from a team with overwhelming talent during their Cup years to one now with a few superstars and a remaining group whose sum has been greater than the individual parts. If that structure has broken down, then they are going to have to scratch and claw to even earn a wild-card spot. The Metropolitan Division is ruthless, and they need to get the train back on the tracks quickly.
Why Everything Might Be Okay
Although the Penguins are bleeding goals, they have actually been staunch at five-on-five; their 2.24 goals against average ranks eighth in the NHL. The penalty kill, which has given up nine goals on 31 penalties (71 percent efficiency) is singlehandedly tanking them. While that’s certainly not good news, special teams are usually incredibly flukey in short spans. The Penguins finished last season with the third-best penalty kill in the league. This could easily be noise.
Mike Sullivan is also one of the top coaches in the NHL, and if anyone can adjust lines and solve tactical problems, it's him. Perhaps as the season goes on, the issues on defense get fixed. If so, the Penguins will get to the finish line. The offense is certainly living up to expectations, with Sidney Crosby, Malkin, Rust and Jake Guentzel producing at the top of the lineup.
Panic Level: Low