Few NBA players suffer from a shortage of motivation. Merely gaining entry into to a 450-person league in a world populated by 8 billion people requires an inherent, borderline pathological competitiveness. If you aren't internally driven, you're never going to make it.
Add to that the day-to-day friction that comes from young players trying to prove they belong and older ones striving to show they aren't ready to step aside, and you have another highly potent source of motivation. Don't forget the way success can increase a player's wealth and status in the form of a fat new contract.
A handful of stars enter the 2022-23 season with more on the line than most. These contract-year players will play this year looking to prove their worth ahead of free agency next summer.
The impact of a contract year is difficult to guess. Some players respond to the added pressure by balling out and earning lucrative new deals, while others struggle with the added distraction and the fear of what an injury might cost them. A few might be disgruntled that their teams haven't already locked them up on new multiyear agreements. These things can shake out in wildly different ways depending on a player's personality and team situation.
Here, we'll take a crack at predicting what's ahead this season for the biggest names heading into contract years.
Russell Westbrook, Los Angeles Lakers
Sadly, the range of potential contract-year outcomes for Russell Westbrook looks pretty narrow. After a 2021-22 season marred by a career-worst box plus/minus and his lowest scoring average since 2009-10, the former MVP isn't a good bet to bounce back.
The aging curve alone augurs poorly for Westbrook, who'll turn 34 less than a month into the season. His temperament, which undeniably contributed to success in the past, is also now more hindrance than help.
Russ seems hardwired to rage against the dying of the light. Going into the 15th year of a career defined by a relentless refusal to change his style of play, Westbrook isn't going to finally embrace compromise or concede that he's no longer the same team-lifting, opponent-demolishing force he once was.
A repeat of last season, in which Westbrook failed to fit into the Los Angeles Lakers' schemes on either end and took the blame (fair or not) for the team's disappointing performance, is very much on the table. Worse outcomes, like a buyout or salary-dump trade to a lottery team, are also in play. That the Lakers brought in Dennis Schröder and Patrick Beverley to join the returning Kendrick Nunn as backcourt playmakers suggests the team is preparing to further marginalize Westbrook or move on from him entirely.
An escape from Los Angeles might not be the worst thing for Westbrook if his new team cares little enough about winning to let him run wild and put up numbers in line with his triple-double days in Oklahoma City. But there's also the bleak possibility that Westbrook can no longer even elevate a team from "poor" to "above average" like he could at his peak.
Russ is making $47.1 million in the final season of his max extension. It isn't totally out of the question that he'll embrace a defensive mindset, buy into role-playing duties and add value to a Lakers team that needs contributions from all parties involved to escape play-in territory. But it's highly unlikely.
Westbrook is probably too proud to accept a buyout, which could cost him millions of dollars. The most plausible outcomes are another brutal, legacy-tarnishing year fighting against change or a trade to a team that will only want the first-round picks thrown in as sweeteners.
It'll be a surprise if Westbrook's next contract includes more than one guaranteed year or a salary above $20 million per season.
Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets
Even at age 30, there's still no question that Kyrie Irving is a game-changing offensive dynamo. His skill and scoring efficiency give him a chance to be the best player on the floor, regardless of who else is out there with him.
Irving set or tied career bests in both points per game and three-point percentage last year. He is the only player to post a true shooting percentage north of 58.0 percent and a usage rate above 29.0 percent in each of the last six seasons.
When on the court, Irving is excellent. What complicates his contract-year status and future earning potential is the amount of time he spends off of it—not to mention his reputation as someone whose commitment to his team and teammates has long been in question.
Irving has played in only 103 of a possible 226 games since joining the Brooklyn Nets, with absences caused by injury, personal reasons and his refusal to be vaccinated against COVID-19. It's difficult to imagine that even a season of perfect attendance and model behavior would convince league executives the potential reward of a massive multiyear deal for Irving would outweigh the risk. His track record indicating the opposite is just too long.