Selection Sunday for the 2022 men's NCAA tournament will be here in just a little over four weeks, but that's still plenty of time for copious amounts of bubble chaos.
If the past two weeks or so are any indication of what to expect as we approach the finish line, buckle up.
Based on each team's five most recent games, we highlighted the programs that have moved the most in each direction on the projected seed list.
Not every team on the bubble will appear here. For example, Florida and San Diego State are smack dab on the projected cut line, but their situations haven't changed drastically in the past two weeks.
Teams in the SEC (Arkansas and Mississippi State) and Mountain West (Wyoming) feature prominently, though. And you best believe we'll discuss BYU's fall from grace.
NET and RES/QUAL metrics are accurate through Thursday and courtesy of BartTorvik.
Stock Up: Wyoming Cowboys
- Resume: 20-3, NET: 27, RES: 19.0, QUAL: 64.7, No. 9 seed in Bracket Matrix
- Five Most Recent Games: W at Air Force, W vs. Colorado State, W vs. Boise State, W at Fresno State, W vs. Utah State
Less than two weeks ago, the case for Wyoming as a projected tournament team was flimsy at best. The Cowboys entered play Jan. 31 with a blowout loss to Arizona, an OK road loss to Boise State, a less-OK neutral-site loss to Stanford and nothing worth mentioning in the win column beyond a two-point victory at Utah State.
Since then, Wyoming has stacked four consecutive wins over teams in the NET top 60, vaulting from the wrong side of the bubble to "just don't screw up too badly and you'll get in."
None of the recent victories were particularly convincing. The Cowboys needed overtime to win home games against Colorado State and Utah State, they only beat Fresno State by a deuce, and a seven-point win over Boise State was a tie game with four minutes remaining. The difference between a 4-0 stretch and an 0-4 stretch wasn't much, and that's largely why the quality metrics aren't really buying what Wyoming is selling.
Nevertheless, the Cowboys are 2-2 vs. Quadrant 1 and 7-3 against the top two quadrants with no Q3/Q4 losses. As long as they can stretch this five-game winning streak to eight games by taking care of business against MWC basement dwellers San Jose State, New Mexico and Air Force in the next eight days, they should be in great shape for a bid.
Stock Down: West Virginia Mountaineers
- Resume: 14-9, NET: 59, RES: 48.5, QUAL: 48.7, 3rd Team Out in Bracket Matrix
- Five Most Recent Games: L vs. Oklahoma, L at Arkansas, L at Baylor, L vs. Texas Tech, W vs. Iowa State
A 16-point home win over Iowa State on Tuesday may have stopped the bleeding for West Virginia, or it may have only been as effective as a Hello Kitty Band-Aid on a gaping wound.
Prior to that victory, the Mountaineers had suffered seven consecutive losses, free-falling onto the bubble.
They've remained in the hunt for an at-large bid because none of the losses were bad. In fact, eight of their nine losses have come against the top half of Quadrant 1, and the exception to that (vs. Oklahoma) isn't exactly an eyesore.
And that would be fine if they actually had some quality wins to go along with all those losses.
West Virginia's best victory came at home against a Connecticut team playing without two critical starters (Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin). Its second-best victory was a road win over UAB in which the Mountaineers had to rally from a nine-point deficit in the final eight minutes.
Yet, their metrics are OK, they don't have any bad losses, and opportunities abound in the Big 12.
The next seven games on West Virginia's schedule are all of the Quadrant 1 variety, which is, of course, a double-edged sword, as it will be expected to lose all seven. Even if the 'Eers pull off upsets in two of those games, that will merely put them at 16-14 overall in advance of their finale against visiting TCU and then the Big 12 tournament.
That probably wouldn't be enough, so they have serious work ahead.
I still think West Virginia would just barely belong in the field if the tournament started today. But I would also be surprised if the Mountaineers play their way into the Big Dance, given their remaining gauntlet.
Stock Up: Arkansas Razorbacks
- Resume: 19-5, NET: 32, RES: 27.0, QUAL: 22.0, No. 7 Seed in Bracket Matrix
- Five Most Recent Games: W at Ole Miss, W vs. West Virginia, W at Georgia, W vs. Mississippi State, W vs. Auburn
After Tuesday's massive win over Associated Press No. 1 Auburn, Arkansas is no longer on the bubble. That isn't to say the Razorbacks are a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday, but there's no way you could pick 25 at-large teams today—let alone 36 of them—without including the Hogs.
Prior to beating the Tigers, though, things were dicey for Arkansas.
Yes, the Razorbacks entered that game on an eight-game winning streak and were certainly trending in the right direction, but they were just about done before that stretch. They were 10-5 with all five losses coming against teams that are now on the bubble or not even in the at-large conversation. And their best wins were neutral-site games against Cincinnati and Kansas State—neither of which is all that close to at-large status.