The 2022 NBA Draft cycle is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating we’ve seen in a long time.
NBA scouts are pretty split on the strength of the class, with few players seen as sure things. Typically, this time of year, there might be 20 guys who scouts feel have separated from the pack and emerged as legitimate potential first-round picks. This year, there are probably more in the range of 10 to 15 who scouts are nearly unanimous on in terms of the range where they’ll be taken.
There is so much room for movement across the board. Not many freshmen have truly stepped up and stood out early as guaranteed first-rounders. While some scouts are excited by guys such as UCLA’s Peyton Watson, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens and Michigan State’s Max Christie, they also aren’t certain those guys profile as guaranteed 2022 prospects at this stage because they might need a bit more polishing at the collegiate level to reach the pinnacle of their draft stock.
That has left a lot of space for sophomores and upperclassmen to make a move and turn into draftable prospects. Below, I’ve focused on seven guys who have stood out to me thus far, all of whom are at least in their third season of collegiate play. I’ve tried to pick a mix of guys who were already on the map in addition to players who seem to be completely off the radar right now for one reason or another. Here are seven upperclassmen who have helped themselves a lot early in the 2021-22 college basketball season.
Ochai Agbaji | 6-foot-5 wing | Kansas | 21 years old | senior
Key numbers: 22.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 57.5/49.1/72.4 shooting line
Ochai Agbaji has been among the players I’ve been most impressed with in college basketball this season. While Agbaji has always had the tools to be a terrific prospect, people who have followed my work over the last few years know how skeptical I’ve been of the 6-foot-5 senior, worrying about his ability to process basketball at high speeds and make plays without panicking. I didn’t love his handle and thought his passing ability wasn’t nearly strong enough. He didn’t just miss the tough reads; he missed the easy ones that would then result in bad shots or turnovers. To me, those are the biggest reasons he ended up not getting as much traction as you’d think as a prospect last season, attending the combine but ultimately not being able to build his draft stock to a high enough point to move forward to the next level.
That’s all changed. The game has clearly slowed down for Agbaji. He’s more confident and comfortable. The shooting was already there, as he made 38 percent of his 3s last year on nearly seven attempts per game. In a hot start to this season, Agbaji is averaging 22 points per game while shooting 45 percent from 3, though that probably won’t keep up (although I don’t think 40 percent over the rest of his season is out of the question). On top of that, he’s always been an elite transition player due to his high-level athleticism and leaping ability, as well as a terrific cutter for whom Kansas consistently runs interesting backdoor sets under Bill Self. All of that is still there. The leap, however, has occurred in his ballhandling and with the speed of the game. Agbaji, especially out in the semi-break, is making plays with ease with the ball in his hands. There is no panic, and his footwork is stronger. He’s a professional playing college basketball now. Throw in that he’s a good defender on the wing with the quickness and strength to be able to deal with a variety of different player types, and it’s kind of an easy fit for a modern NBA role.
The only thing Agbaji still isn’t bringing is passing. He certainly doesn’t turn the ball over and has become much better at making smart escape passes and not getting rushed. Kansas also is using him as a play finisher as opposed to a real creator. But Agbaji taking that last step has transformed his game from “good, All-Big-12-level” player to “potential national player of the year candidate” if he keeps up this play.
He’s a clear first-rounder on my board right now. I see him as a top-20 guy. Every team needs shooters who can defend. As long as the decision-making continues to hold up, it’s hard to see Agbaji failing to at least become a good rotation wing at the next level.