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The Los Angeles Angels (63-68) and Philadelphia Phillies (72-58) meet Monday as they open a 3-game interleague series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network).
Season series: First meeting of 2023; Philadelphia won last year’s series 3-0
August has been a terrible month for Los Angeles. The Angels have gone 7-17 so far while cranking out a paltry .627 OPS.
The Phillies are continuing a home stand that has thus far seen them go 5-1 with stellar pitching. Philadelphia owns a 2.62 ERA over those 6 home games. Since July 15 the Phils have gone 17-8 in their home yard.
Angels at Phillies projected starters
RHP Lucas Giolito vs. RHP Taijuan Walker
Giolito (7-10 4.32 ERA) makes his 27th start of the season. He has a 1.27 WHIP 3.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 148 IP for the Angels and Chicago White Sox.
- Last start: Loss 6 IP 5 H 4 R (1 ER) 2 BB 9 K in 4-3 home loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- 2023 road stats: 3-7 6.14 ERA in 71 1/3 IP across 14 starts
- One career start vs. Phillies: Win 6 IP 0 ER 0 H 1 BB 7 K in a 3-0 win as a member of the Chicago White Sox
- Owns a Boeing 7.07 ERA over 7 starts in the 2nd half
Walker (13-5 4.02 ERA) is lined up for his 26th start. He’s posted a 1.29 WHIP 3.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 136 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision 5 IP 6 H 3 R (2 ER) 2 BB 7 K in 4-3 home win vs. San Francisco Giants Tuesday
- 2023 home stats: 6-2 3.14 ERA in 71.2 IP across 13 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Angels: 2-2 6.17 ERA in 23 1/3 IP (2016-22)
Angels at Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Angels +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Angels +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Angels at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Angels 5 Phillies 4
Moneyline
The banged-up Angels have a bit more growth potential in their overall team numbers.
Among this game’s starting pitchers and bullpens there are some recent surface figures that don’t line up with analytics. These figures favor the Halos on both sides. For example Giolito has been undone by some home runs/fly balls bad luck of late and his overall surface road numbers above don’t look great. However those come alongside a .338 batting average with balls in play (BABIP).
BABIP fluctuations are also a big part of a recent slide for the Angel bullpen and a surge for the Philly relief corps.
Taijuan Walker has a history of 2nd-half fades (career: 3.58 1st-half ERA vs. 4.52 2nd-half ERA). He owns a 4.76 ERA this August and his season is also shaded for the better due to a .268 BABIP.
Walker has a history of strong finishes. Over his career his best OPS-allowed figures have been logged in August and September.
The morning has seen a bit of money go to the Los Angeles side here and the return on the Halos has dropped. Still the ANGELS (+115) are worth a partial-unit play.
Run line/Against the spread
Philadelphia does play in a lot of 1-run games but the price on the Angels is steep here.
AVOID.
Over/Under
The production on both sides is fairly level with expectations. With Monday’s offsetting pitching factors and neutral weather there is no leverage here on either side.
PASS.