Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays odds, picks and predictions

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The Houston Astros (36-26) and Toronto Blue Jays (35-28) wrap up their 4-game series on Thursday which is also their 7th and final meeting of the season. First pitch from Rogers Centre in Toronto will be at 7:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network).

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Astros have lost 3 of their last 4 games including their last 2 to the Blue Jays. They’re now 4 1/2 games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West. Houston owns the best pitching staff in baseball leading the league with a team ERA of 3.25 with the 5th-most quality starts (30).

The Blue Jays are heating up winning 9 of their last 12 games a stretch that includes wins in 6 of their last 7. Star SS Bo Bichette leads the team in average (.331) home runs (14) and RBI (42) which has helped Toronto rank 3rd in team batting average (.264) and 9th in runs (292).

Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays projected starters

LHP Framber Valdez vs. RHP Jose Berrios

Valdez (6-4 2.16 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP 1.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 79 innings.

Only has 1 start this season with more than 3 ER allowed
In his last 3 starts he’s allowed 1 ER with 19 K’s in 22 IP

Berrios (5-4 3.66 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP 2.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings.

Has not allowed more than 3 runs in his last 6 starts lowering his ERA from 5.29 to 3.66
Has pitched at least 5 innings in all but 1 of his 12 starts

Astros at Blue Jays odds

Moneyline (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Blue Jays +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Astros at Blue Jays picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4 Blue Jays 3

Moneyline

This is a tough game to pick because both teams have been playing well of late and have strong starters on the bump. Valdez has been spectacular this season for Houston and always gives the Astros 6-plus solid innings which gives me confidence that the Astros will bounce back from this 2-game losing skid and win on Thursday night.

BET ASTROS (-120) to win outright.

Run line/Against the spread

This should be a close game just as Wednesday’s 3-2 matchup was. For that reason I don’t love either side of the run line. There’s not enough benefit to taking the Blue Jays +1.5 at -165 especially with betting the Astros SU at -120.

And with this pitching matchup likely making it a lower-scoring game I’m hesitant to take the Astros -1.5 PASS on the run line.

Over/Under

The total has only gone Over in 2 of the Blue Jays’ last 10 games according to Covers and in 5 of the Astros’ last 10. With Valdez and Berrios as the starters this should be a low-scoring game which is why the total is set at only 8.

Yet I still like the UNDER 8 (+100) at Rogers Centre.