The Denver Nuggets head south to face the Miami Heat Wednesday in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Tip from Kaseya Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC).

Series: Tied 1-1

The Heat were too much in the 4th quarter on Sunday as they took down Denver 111-108 in Game 2. Denver played a solid game, shooting 52% from the floor and 39% from distance. However Miami went 17-for-35 (48%) from behind the 3-point line.

Denver survived an early charge from Miami and took over the game in the 2nd, going up 57-51 at half. Miami outscored them 17-5 to open the 4th and hung on for the 3-point win. Denver was 11-0 in the playoffs and 37-1 in the regular season when leading the game by double digits at any point.

Heat F Jimmy Butler had 21 points, but he’s still having to work hard for everything on the floor. PG Gabe Vincent led Miami with 23 points. Nuggets C Nikola Jokic had 41 points and 11 rebounds, and PG Jamal Murray had 18 points and 10 assists.

Nuggets at Heat odds

• Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Heat +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
• Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +2.5 (-110) | Heat -2.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nuggets at Heat key injuries

Nuggets

• None

Heat

• SG Tyler Herro (hand) – questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Nuggets at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 110, Nuggets 108

Moneyline

Miami’s win in Game 2 snapped a 7-game losing streak to the Nuggets, who have won 8 of 10 against them since the 2019-20 season. The Heat are 6-2 at home this postseason and were 34-17 in the regular season.

The switch to put F Kevin Love, who had 6 points and 10 boards, in the starting lineup really lit a spark. I think they have enough left in the tank to sneak by in this game. A sticking point for me, though, is Miami was up by as many as 12 in the 4th quarter, and Denver kept coming. I’d rather have the points than the so-so +120 Heat ML.

PASS.

Against the spread

Take the HEAT +2.5 (-110).

Over/Under

This total has cashed an Over in 3 of the last 4 meetings between the teams. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami and 6-1 in the last 7 overall. The Over is 6-2-1 for Denver in its last 9 road games.

Even at the naked eye, the total looks a little low. I’ll take the OVER 214.5 (-110).