When Jack Campbell entered Game 4 of the Oilers’ first-round series against the Kings, he did more than bail out his teammates.
Campbell, who made 26 saves on 27 shots in Edmonton’s OT win, became the 22nd goaltender to see playoff minutes so far in 2023. At least three teams have active questions around who will start their next games. Guys are playing well. Guys are playing terribly. Stuff is happening.
So, sure, it feels like an opportune time to do a wellness check on each team’s situation in net. Here is our highly scientific Goalie Confidence Index, from 1-16. The question is simple enough: How much do you trust your guys?
16. Panthers
The Alex Lyon Experience, delightful as it was, seems to have met its end. Florida is home without him — we’re legally bound to point that out in any Lyon-adjacent remarks — but it was always going to take something special against the Bruins, and that’s not what he provided (.902 save percentage, minus-1.0 goals saved above expected) in his less-than-three games on the job. Some of recent history’s more memorable entertaining mediocre play? Absolutely. A lot of bad goals mixed in there, though.
His replacement, good ol’ Sergei Bobrovsky, wasn’t much better in Game 4, stopping 25 of 30 shots and, specifically, whiffing on a glove save that turned into a goal by Jake DeBrusk that put Boston up 4-2 with 11:55 remaining. If the goal is to dig out of a 3-1 series hole against the best regular-season team in league history, the confidence level is 0.0.
15. Devils
It made a whole bunch of sense for New Jersey to take a flier on Vitek Vanecek last summer; they’d just used a seven-goalie death squad to post the worst five-on-five save percentage (.899) in the league. Low-grade competence would’ve sufficed — “Hey, this guy isn’t terrible” — and Vanecek, with a save percentage (.908) and GSAx (-2.85) squarely in the “could be worse” quadrant, certainly provided it.
We know what happened next. Vanecek leveled up a bit, saving more than 13 goals above expected on the season, and thus the Devils leveled up a lot. Competent goaltending can go a long way behind a breakout group of skaters, and the Metropolitan Division’s balance of power shifted accordingly. So far against the Rangers, though, Vanecek has looked more like the guy that short-circuited for the Capitals in the first 20 minutes of the 2022 postseason. No goalie who’s played more than one game has a save percentage within shouting distance of Vanecek’s .828, and his -2.99 GSAx is at the bottom of the bottom, as well.
Now, heading into Game 4 against the Rangers, it seems like Vanecek has lost the net for the foreseeable future. Akira Schmid was a surprise start for Lindy Ruff in Game 3 and, naturally, was a difference-maker, stopping 35 of 36 shots with a GSAx of 2.7. Chris Kreider only scored once, and it was on a two-on-one! This is progress! Still, though, the Devils’ circumstances — Schmid’s lack of track record, his opponent, the way the series has generally unfolded — make it tough to believe here, even though there was a distinct “random guy goes on a heater” scent wafting from the locker room after Game 3.
14. Oilers
Could Campbell, realistically, have been any better for the Oilers on Sunday night? He came in mid-stream and stopped 26 of the 27 shots he faced, including five high-danger chances. Mixed in there was a save on Viktor Arvidsson that, quite literally, saved the game. Might’ve saved the Oilers’ season, too.
It’s a new series now, as they say. Edmonton was a play or two away from going down 3-1 in the first round after a regular season spent convincing people that they, finally, could be counted on to do nothing of the sort. We know Campbell is capable of a sustained hot streak; he made $25 million based on that fact.
We also know Campbell lost his job to Stuart Skinner for a reason; sustained putridity that stopped Edmonton from looking like a serious contender. Of the 102 goaltenders who played in the NHL this season, only three (Kaapo Kahkonen, Spencer Martin, Elvis Merzlikins) had a worse GSAx than Campbell’s -18.87. He was 88th in save percentage. One game can’t change that. Assuming Campbell starts in Game 5, his margin for error should be non-existent.