Searching for prime trade candidates for the upcoming NBA offseason? The most disappointing players of the 2022-23 campaign is a great place to start.
Sure, trading a player when his stock is low is less than ideal, but the degree of disappointment with the following players was so severe there are reasons to think (or at least worry) their trade values will never recover. So, teams can cross their fingers, hope for the best and risk wasting another season, or they can cut their losses and get a deal done as soon as possible.
We're interested in that latter scenario here.
A few notes on the players selected before getting started. First, we're ignoring players who disappointed with injuries alone. Obviously, no one feels great about how the season played out for Lonzo Ball or Zion Williamson, but when good fortune on the health front is all they need to avoid further disappointment, then unloading them now wouldn't make much sense.
Second, we're only looking at players who came into this campaign with realistic expectations to perform. A role player having a rocky season just happens sometimes. Young players don't always make the immediate leaps that fans want to see. Neither situation ranks among the Association's biggest disappointments.
These four players—who all pocketed eight-figure salaries and operated primarily or exclusively in the starting lineup—were such enormous letdowns that a summer scenery change seems best for all involved.
John Collins Finally Gets Moved
Indiana Pacers receive: John Collins
Atlanta Hawks receive: Buddy Hield
John Collins has spent the bulk of his six-year career on the trade block. It's possible he would have finally made the jump from the rumor mill to the transaction log this season had he not backtracked in such a major way.
When the buzzer sounded on his regular season, many of his numbers had dipped to new personal lows. That included his 6.5 rebounds, 50.8 field-goal percentage and 29.2 three-point percentage. His 13.1 points avoided this dubious distinction, but they only bettered the scoring output from his rookie season.
It was rough, but maybe not so bad that it scared away all suitors. The Pacers, for instance, have a glaring hole at power forward and could reasonably convince themselves their setup would be much more conducive to his success.
Sharing the frontcourt with a floor-spacer like Myles Turner instead of the paint-clogging Clint Capela would give Collins more room to operate as a pick-and-roll finisher. Collins would also see more usage in general after splitting from Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, who each attempted more shots than anyone in Indiana. When Collins has been featured, he has usually delivered. Between 2018-19 and 2020-21, he put up 19.3 points per night on 56.5/38.4/79.5 shooting.
At 25 years old, he is also young enough to fit in and grow with a core featuring the 27-year-old Turner, 23-year-old Tyrese Haliburton and 20-year-old Bennedict Mathurin. That's a nucleus that could make noise in the Eastern Conference sooner than later with the right pieces around it.
Buddy Hield, who turns 31 this December, exists on a different timeline. It's one that the win-now Hawks could much better accommodate.
Atlanta might be in the market for a designated sharpshooter, too, since no one really filled the void left by Kevin Huerter. The Hawks fielded a good offense (seventh in efficiency) despite struggling from three (26th in makes, 21st in percentage). Give them a fire-baller like Hield, a career supplier of 3.1 threes a night on 40.2 percent shooting, and this attack could jump from good to great.
Minnesota Gives Up on Rudy Gobert
Dallas Mavericks receive: Rudy Gobert
Minnesota Timberwolves receive: Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans and 2027 first-round pick (top-three-protected)
The Timberwolves would wear a carton's worth of eggs on their face if they turned around and traded Rudy Gobert just one offseason after paying a cartoonish amount to get him, and a deal still might be worth it.
That's how disastrous his first go-round in the Gopher State has been.
His stat line tanked to levels it hadn't been in years. His 11.6 rebounds and 65.9 field-goal percentage were his worst marks since 2017-18. His 13.4 points were his fewest 2015-16. He failed to average two blocks (1.4) for the first time since his rookie season.
More damning than his individual numbers, though, was his overall lack of impact. The Timberwolves were basically the same team with him (plus-0.4 points per 100 possessions) as they were without (plus-0.1). The defense barely improved (10th in efficiency, up from 13th), while the offense fell off a cliff (23rd, down from seventh).
Now, there's a good chance Minnesota wants to give this group more time or simply thinks it can't make a move now with all the damage Gobert has done to his trade value. Still, the Wolves could cut their losses, get out from underneath his colossal contract and hope to see some addition by subtraction.
As for the actual additions in this deal, the first-round pick is the obvious prize, but Tim Hardaway Jr. is at least playable as a shooting specialist. Davis Bertans theoretically fits the same role, but his defense is so atrocious that he would be in this deal strictly for money-matching purposes.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, are running low on options to construct a contender around Luka Doncic. They could be desperate enough to take a flier on Gobert, especially if the cost is one rotation player and a single future first. Dallas will need defensive protection if it brings back Kyrie Irving, and Gobert could feast on easy scoring chances created by Doncic and Irving.