The next NBA blockbuster trade is coming soon.
They almost operate like clockwork during the player empowerment era. If a superstar doesn't sour on his situation and demand his way out, then his team might heed the proverbial writing on the wall and recognize the need for major change.
Either way, a landscape-shifting swap is never far off. If a megadeal doesn't go down this summer, then one could materialize early next season as someone reacts to a surprise stumble out of the starting block.
So, which star will most likely be on the move? Our crystal ball isn't quite certain, but by weighing items such as differing timelines, stalling performances and closing championship windows, it spotlighted the following five candidates.
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
Bradley Beal is about to wrap his 11th NBA season with the Washington Wizards. This campaign will be his sixth that fails to deliver a playoff berth. He has never traveled beyond the conference semifinals and last reached that point in 2017.
This background perhaps helps connect the dots from a vague but potentially revealing comment he made earlier this season.
"I'm patient, but there comes a time where you have to be a little selfish and draw a line in the sand, for sure," Beal told Andscape's Marc J. Spears in February.
Only Beal knows where his line in the sand sits, but one playoff trip and zero postseason series wins to show for the past five seasons must be in the same zip code, right?
Now, he did recommit to this franchise last summer on a five-year deal worth a quarter-billion dollars, so that potentially complicates things. His scoring is elite (27 points per game on 47.4/34.7/84.5 shooting since the start of 2018-19), but is it worth $50 million annually?
Let's just say a team acquiring him would almost assuredly want to offload some long-term money in that exchange.
Still, his point production, secondary playmaking and floor spacing can help someone win—just not the Wizards. They've given zero indication of being able to build a winner around him, and it's not like that task will simplify as he moves into his 30s and grows more expensive by the season. It's time for Beal to start working on his stick-in-sand sketching.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls are on the brink of a rebuild. They should be, anyway.
Since losing floor general Lonzo Ball to a meniscus tear and bone bruise last January, Chicago has gone 57-63. And remember, this is a franchise that "will not settle for mediocrity," according to vice president of basketball operations Arturas Karnišovas.
What could possibly convince the Bulls—and 33-year-old DeMar DeRozan for that matter—that things will be any different next season? Ball's 2023-24 campaign is already in jeopardy, and this club has yet to string any consistency together without him. This roster was built to overwhelm opponents with offense, yet it sits a jarring 23rd in offensive efficiency.
With unrestricted free agency awaiting Nikola Vucevic this offseason—and greeting DeRozan next summer—the Bulls have the chance to make a clean break. If they think they can reload quickly, they can convince themselves it's sensible to retain 28-year-old Zach LaVine. But the same can't be said for DeRozan, who will turn 34 in August.
He can't fix what ails this club. He could, however, spruce up an actual win-now squad's attack with some of the finest one-on-one scoring in the business. Among the 26 players who handle at least three isolations per game, he's one of four players ranked in the 89th percentile or better on those plays.
His scoring range doesn't push past the three-point arc, but given his inside-the-arc mastery and ability to create for others, it doesn't need to. He slots in the 91st percentile for offensive estimated plus/minus and ranks among the league's top 35 in offensive RAPTOR. This elite output should matter more than it does. Get him out of Chicago, and it will.