The 2023 NHL draft lottery is scheduled for May 8. That's when we'll find out which team has earned the right, perhaps through self-immolation or blind luck, to draft Connor Bedard, the 17-year-old Regina Pats center who is expected to be no less than a franchise savior.
Which is, admittedly, a pretty high bar to clear for a rookie.
I had a conversation not too long ago with the venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN about that perception of Bedard's potential.
"I was just thinking to myself, and I didn't say it publicly, that we should just pump the brakes a little bit," he said, laughing. "I've learned that over the years with these 'phenoms.' It's in fairness to them. Our society and social media and everybody wants to make everyone the biggest thing ever and hype it. Let's just be sensible a little bit here. Recognize that there's something special in these kids, but don't set the bar unsustainably high."
What would help Bedard: If he didn't have to be a franchise's savior right off the hop, but a star player who bolsters what is already in place.
Since I watch copious amounts of home improvement shows on TV, let me put it this way: There's a difference between Bedard joining a fixer-upper, Bedard joining a gut renovation and Bedard walking into an empty lot where they haven't even poured the concrete yet.
Here's a look at which teams can contend the earliest with Bedard on their roster. Please note that we've taken the teams currently eligible to secure the first overall pick as of Wednesday — a team can jump only 10 spots by winning the first draft lottery, so only the top 11 teams are eligible.
Which teams are best positioned to make the most out of Connor Bedard in the shortest amount of time?
1. Detroit Red Wings
When Steve Yzerman arrived with the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010, he discovered a foundation that had added two sturdy pillars over the prior two seasons: Drafting Steven Stamkos first overall in 2008 and Victor Hedman second overall in 2009.
That's not to diminish the work that Yzerman did in building some dynastic teams before returning to Detroit — hitting on Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli is an impressive game of prospect "Battleship." It's just to say he had a heck of a head start, especially in comparison to what he was handed with the Red Wings.
The major flaw in "The Yzerplan" has been that lack of an elite, foundational center around whom to build. Dylan Larkin is great. We love Dylan Larkin. But he's 26 years old and not, at last check, in the class of Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Leon Draisaitl or Jack Hughes.
All of those players were taken within the top three picks in the draft, which has been Detroit's problem during the rebuild: The highest they picked was fourth overall in 2020, when they acquired Lucas Raymond. Their lottery luck was so rotten, their losing seasons so squandered, that the current draft lottery rules were established in response to it.
(I was going to say this was the most significant concession the NHL ever made to the Ilitch family, but then I remembered that they literally realigned the league so Red Wings road games could start earlier.)
The current Red Wings are essentially a solar system in search of a sun. Larkin is legit. Mo Seider and Lucas Raymond have bright futures despite some sophomore year struggles. Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper and Sebastian Cossa are the next wave. There's a good veteran supporting cast, especially goalie Ville Husso.
If they land Bedard and he follows the same growth pattern as McDavid and Matthews, then 2024-25 is the season it all comes together. Even after Seider's next contract, Yzerman will have an enormous amount of cap space in Summer 2024 to shape the roster around Bedard. The Wings' young players will have matured, too.
The seeds are all planted in Detroit. Bedard would be their Miracle-Gro.
2. Washington Capitals
I pestered an NHL executive about this thought experiment, and they made an interesting point. The Capitals have some of the worst odds for the first overall pick because they were far closer to playoff qualification than some of these other teams. So logic would dictate that if you add a phenom center to a pretty good team, it's possible that team could be contending in short order.
The Capitals were the very definition of middling this season. They were 15th in expected goals for and against at 5-on-5, for example. Injuries were an enormous factor this season, with players like Tom Wilson, John Carlson and Nicklas Backstrom all missing well over half the campaign. But in some cases, when you decide to keep the band together you're occasionally going to blow a fuse in some of the amps.
It's difficult to predict the Bedard Effect on the Capitals because it's difficult to predict what the Capitals will look like next season. They have 17 players under contract and just over $7 million in cap space. There's been an uptick in speculation about the future of Evgeny Kuznetsov in Washington, given his $7.8 million average annual value contract. They want to get younger but want to stay competitive.
Capitals owner Ted Leonsis told me that the team made a deal with Alex Ovechkin: Re-sign here and stay motivated to win, and they'll "keep the team competitive [and] a playoff team." I'll take him at his word, which is one reason the Capitals are this high: They see maintaining a contender as the most sure-fire way to get Ovechkin to pass Wayne Gretzky in career goals.
Of course, having Connor Bedard dishing him the puck would only expedite that process.