In the NBA roster-building game, the only thing harder than acquiring talent is keeping it. That'll become clear as we run down every team's biggest flight risk this offseason.
We'll make that designation by gauging how likely it is that a player will leave his current team while also considering how significant the impact of his departure would be.
Otherwise, a 14th man without a guaranteed contract for next year would rate as every team's biggest flight risk, which a) doesn't make for much interesting discussion and b) fails to account for the risk element. If a team won't really miss the player in question, is there really any "risk" involved?
We all know most of the league's top-tier talents won't be going anywhere, but we'll skew toward bigger names whenever there's a logical case or reporting that says they might be on the move. If you thought the trade deadline put an end to speculation season, think again. It's already time to game out which players could be on the move in July.
Atlanta Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Depending on how you feel about the current state of the Play-In-bound Atlanta Hawks, it's either encouraging or terrifying that they're pretty much locked into the same roster next season. Nine of their 10 highest-paid players are under team control for 2023-24, with backup combo guard Bogdan Bogdanovic standing out as the only exception.
The 30-year-old has an $18 million player option for next year. Struggling again with injury this season, Bogdanovic could have reason to take the guaranteed money, hope for better health in 2023-24 and then enter free agency looking like a more valuable asset. Then again, Bogdanovic might be wise to opt out and take a lower annual salary (let's say $15 million per season) on a new multiyear deal, locking in as much guaranteed money and as many years as possible.
Barring a major physical breakdown over the season's final few months, he's bound to have suitors. Even in what could fairly be termed a down year, Bogdanovic is putting up 14.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.0 assists while hitting 38.3 percent of his threes. Useful on the ball as a pick-and-roll creator and dangerous as a spot-up threat, Bogdanovic is an ideal third guard at worst and a solid starter at best.
John Collins wishes he could be the pick here, but there was no market for the man who's spent as much time in the rumor mill (without actually getting traded) as almost anyone in the league. Atlanta would draw up Collins' flight plan if it could, but there's been no runway to speak of.
Boston Celtics: Grant Williams
Maybe if the Boston Celtics were to exit the playoffs a couple of rounds earlier than expected, the idea of trading Jaylen Brown for another star would gain some traction. That doesn't technically make him a flight risk, and choosing anyone but soon-to-be restricted free agent forward Grant Williams here is a little too galaxy-brained anyway.
All of the Celtics' top rotation players are under guaranteed contracts next season, except for Williams, whose versatile frontcourt defense and demonstrated postseason effectiveness will make him a sought-after commodity. At a career-high 41.4 percent from deep this season, Williams is validating some of his hot shooting from the 2022 playoffs. He's a career 42.7 percent marksman from long range in 46 postseason contests.
Any team with cap space and a paint-bound center would do well to throw a multiyear deal at Williams, who could space the floor and even slot in as a small-ball 5 against the right matchups. A "right place, right time" defender who can handle himself in space against guards and hold his ground inside, Williams could command an annual salary in the $20 million range. He's valuable to Boston and could solidify his place in the team's future with a strong postseason, but demand for his services will be high around the league.