Did any projection, even the most optimistic, expect this from Alex Ovechkin five years ago?

Sure, he was the greatest goal scorer on the planet at the time. He tallied a league-best 49 goals in 2017-18. He had cleared 600 career goals by the end of that season. Talk of the chase to catch Wayne Gretzky’s 894 started to bubble up. It felt especially relevant because ‘Ovi’ had just won his first Stanley Cup, crossing off a crucial bucket-list item, theoretically allowing him to focus more on stat accumulation going forward.

Projections were out there five years ago. I certainly made some. But Ovechkin was already 32 at that point. Anyone forecasting his quest for 895 factored in the idea that he would, you know, age like a mortal human being. The idea of catching Gretzky felt far fetched.

But what’s happened since has blown up the very idea of projecting for decline.

• Ovechkin in his age-33 season: a league-leading 51 goals
• Ovechkin in his age-34 season: a league-leading 48 goals (in 68 games)
• Ovechkin in his age-35 season: 24 goals in 45 games, a 43-goal pace
• Ovechkin in his age-36 season: A record-tying ninth 50-goal season

This season, as he reaches the 800-goal summit: 20 goals in 32 games, good for a 51-goal pace.