In 2020-21, the Gonzaga Bulldogs made it all the way to the men's college basketball national championship before suffering their first loss of the season.

Last year, the final undefeated teams (Baylor and USC) both suffered their first losses on January 11, more than two months before the tourney even began.

How deep into the 2022-23 campaign will we get with at least one undefeated team?

Ten teams are still standing in that quest: three from the SEC (Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri), three from the Mountain West (New Mexico, UNLV and Utah State), Connecticut, Houston, Purdue and Virginia. We're going to lose one of them on Dec. 17 when Houston visits Virginia, though there's a chance that the winner of that game will run the table.

For each team, we have listed the percentage chance that they're undefeated on each of January 1, February 1 and after the final day of the regular season. Those figures were calculated by multiplying together KenPom win probabilities as of Thursday morning.

The order in which teams are presented is also based on win probabilities. They're sorted chronologically by the first game in which they are given a 49 percent or lower chance of victory—if such a game is even on their schedule.

Missouri Tigers

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 1.8 percent
Chance Undefeated on February 1: <0.01 percent
Chance Undefeated Through Regular Season: Ain't Happening

First Projected Loss: Dec. 10 vs. Kansas

Missouri is all sorts of fun to watch, boasting both one of the fastest tempos in the country and one of the most efficient offenses. That's been a pleasant surprise.

Missouri ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 260th in adjusted tempo last season. And after parting ways with head coach Cuonzo Martin, Mizzou brought in Dennis Gates from Cleveland State, who had never ranked among the top 125 in offensive efficiency or adjusted tempo during his three seasons as a head coach.

Lo and behold, Missouri is leading the nation in scoring at 93.0 points per game with a super-fluid, undersized roster. Each member of the primary eight-man rotation is 6'7" or shorter and is averaging at least 5.9 points, 2.2 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. The Tigers are also leading the nation in steal percentage with at least a dozen in eight of their first nine games. (All of those fast-break opportunities explains the pace/scoring.)

However, the Tigers' upcoming schedule is an absolute gauntlet. Of their next 11 games, the only one that KenPom gives them at least a 55 percent chance of winning is the home game against Vanderbilt on January 7.

In other words, Missouri could go straight from 9-0 to 10-10 in six weeks' time.

If the Tigers don't lose to their old archrival on Saturday, they might lose to UCF the following Saturday. And even if they make it through that two-game stretch unscathed, they're extremely unlikely to win all of the subsequent three games against Illinois (in St. Louis), Kentucky (home) and Arkansas (away).