Since the 2020-21 season, NHL teams have operated under a salary cap that's risen at a glacial pace. Flattened by a reduction in hockey-related revenue brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, the cap was fixed at $81.5 million over the past two seasons, rising to $82.5 million for 2022-23 and scheduled to increase to $83.5 for 2023-24.
However, there is good news ahead for the 32 NHL clubs. On Sept. 27, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman and Rory Boylen reported multiple sources forecast the cap could significantly increase in 2024-25 and 2025-26.
Based on potential revenue projections, the cap could reach between $87.5 million and $88 million for 2024-25. For 2025-26, it could jump another estimated $4 million to $92 million.
Those projections are tied to the NHL returning to full 82-game schedules with full arena attendance, lucrative broadcasting deals with Disney and Turner Sports, as well as new advertising and corporate sponsorship deals.
Every NHL club will profit from those projected increases in the cap, particularly clubs with key players due for new contracts that could extend beyond 2023-24. Here's a look at eight that could benefit the most.
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Colorado Avalanche
The defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche recently made headlines by signing Nathan MacKinnon to an eight-year, $100.8 million contract extension. The average annual value, which begins in 2023-24, will be a whopping $12.6 million, surpassing Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid for the highest AAV.
Given MacKinnon's hefty raise, the Avalanche will need all the salary-cap space they can get. It's already looking tight for them in 2023-24 when they'll have a projected $70.3 million invested in just 12 players. Erik Johnson is their notable pending unrestricted free agent, while youngsters Alex Newhook and Bowen Byram are restricted free agents.
The potential rise of the cap to $87.5 million for 2024-25 occurs when defenseman Devon Toews and goaltender Pavel Francouz become eligible for UFA status. An increase to $92 million in 2025-26 could help them re-sign winger Mikko Rantanen and goalie Alexandar Georgiev, who are slated to become UFAs in July 2025.
Maintaining a Cup champion is difficult during normal circumstances. Doing so with a marginally rising cap, as the Tampa Bay Lightning did over the past two years, is tougher and can lead to the incremental depletion of roster depth. Having the cap potentially rise to $92 million by 2025 should make it a little easier for the Avs to maintain their core players.
Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars managed to squeeze new contracts for rising young stars Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger within their cap payroll for this season. However, they're going to need a lot more cap room if those two have blossomed into indispensable core players when those contracts expire in 2025.
Robertson inked a four-year deal with an average annual value of $7.8 million. He's already established himself as one of their top scorers, netting a team-leading 41 goals last season. If he maintains that level of production over the course of his current deal, he could exceed $10 million annually on his next deal.
Oettinger took over as the Stars' starting goaltender last season as an NHL sophomore. Earning an AAV of $4 million through 2024-25, he could be in line to more than double his pay if he becomes one of the league's top netminders over that period.
The Stars must also re-sign Roope Hintz and ageless winger Joe Pavelski before 2023-24. Captain Jamie Benn will be turning 36 by 2025 when he becomes a UFA. If he's not re-signed, the significant increase in the cap by then will make it much easier to re-sign Robertson and Oettinger.
Edmonton Oilers
Leon Draisaitl's current contract expires at the end of 2024-25. The Edmonton Oilers superstar is earning an average annual value of $8.5 million and will be due for a substantial raise on his next deal.
A projected increase in the cap to $92 million for 2025-26 couldn't come at a better time for the Oilers. It should give them a decent opportunity to re-sign Draisaitl.
The Oilers already have $73.5 million tied up in 15 players for 2023-24 with Evan Bouchard and Jesse Puljujarvi due to become restricted free agents next July. They won't be able to put permanently sidelined Oscar Klefbom and Mike Smith on long-term injury reserve to exceed the cap because their contracts come off their books at the end of this season.
The Oilers will need that projected rise to at least $87.5 million for 2024-25, as winger Kailer Yamamoto and promising forward Dylan Holloway will become restricted free agents in July 2024. If they invested wisely in those players before 2025, it could help them have enough to retain Draisaitl when the cap reaches $92 million.