If the New York Yankees don't at least make it to the World Series next month, will Aaron Boone return in 2023 as the manager of the pinstripes?

Is the sixth losing season in seven years under Don Mattingly enough for the Miami Marlins to move on from Donnie Baseball?

And is there anything Tony La Russa can do to save his job with the Chicago White Sox?

In the hot-seat rankings that we put together in late July, the goal was to identify the managers most likely to be fired before the end of the season. (No. 2 on that list, Chris Woodward, did get the ax a few weeks later.) But in this edition, offseason moves are also on the table, as we look for the teams most likely to have a new manager before Opening Day 2023.

That means we're adding in teams with winning records like the Yankees and Brewers, who didn't seem likely to make a midseason move but might make a change if they're not playing deep into October. It also means adding in the likes of the Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals, who were already too far gone six weeks ago to even bother with firing the manager but might be seeking a new direction for next season.

Managers are listed in ascending order of likelihood of not returning in 2023.

Honorable Mentions

While they don't quite land in our top six, here are four other managers who might be shown the door this offseason.

Craig Counsell, Milwaukee Brewers
75-66 in 2022; 604-545 overall with Milwaukee

Counsell has led the Brewers to the playoffs in each of the past four seasons, including NL Central titles in both 2018 and 2021. But in seven-plus years, he has won just one postseason series, and this year's team wilted after entering the Aug. 2 trade deadline with a three-game lead in the NL Central.

Could this be a Dusty Baker in San Francisco/Cincinnati/Washington sort of situation where Milwaukee decides that—while it appreciates Counsell's ability to deliver winning regular seasons—it needs to bring in a closer, if you will, who it believes can actually get the job done in October?

David Ross, Chicago Cubs
58-82 in 2022; 163-199 overall with Chicago

Last year, Chicago went 8-22 in the 30 games leading up to the trade deadline and ended up embracing a fire sale of its many impending free agents. But that wasn't enough for a rapid rebuild, as the Cubs are even worse this year.

It's only Ross' third year at the helm, and he did hit that home run in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series. So maybe he'll get one more shot at fixing this mess in 2023. But it wouldn't be a surprise if the Cubs bring in a new manager now that pretty much everyone from that 2016 team is gone.

A.J. Hinch, Detroit Tigers
54-86 in 2022; 131-171 overall with Detroit

Being fired after two years would be a quick hook for a manager who won at least 100 games in each of his final three seasons in Houston, but it has to at least be considered after Detroit had arguably the most disappointing season of any team.

Bud Black, Colorado Rockies
61-80 in 2022; 410-439 overall with Colorado

Before Black took the job, Colorado had suffered at least 87 losses in six consecutive seasons, yet he immediately got the Rockies into the playoffs in his first two years. Since then, however, they have a .443 winning percentage and haven't even sniffed a postseason berth.

It's not Black's fault that upper management so woefully botched the Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story contract situations, but they had begun to crater even before those guys left for greener pastures. Colorado might fire Black, but that won't fix its teamwide pitching woes.