Welcome to the final installment in our series on college basketball's new era of frequent transfers.
First we considered the most significant modern-era transfers into and out of more than 80 of the nation's leading men's programs across the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, AAC, Big East, Big Ten and ACC.
Then we quantified the impacts of granting an additional year of eligibility and of the NCAA's adoption of a one-time transfer rule for revenue sports. We found that last season transfers accounted for 40% of the minutes played at major-conference programs.
Today, we bring this discussion to a close with a look at out-transfers — or players who transfer out. Is the trend toward more major-conference minutes for incoming transfers matched by a correspondingly high rate of departures? Which programs are losing and/or burning through the most talent?
The departing 18%
Players who have already transferred out of their respective major-conference programs just in the past season collectively recorded 18% of all the minutes for their original teams. Naturally, this number for the 2021-22 campaign's out-transfer rate will increase in the future, as more players who saw action last season elect at some point to make a change. If we look at the updated out-transfer rate for major-conference minutes played back in 2020-21, for example, that number has so far climbed to 29%.
Saying that the players who recorded 18% of all minutes transferred out doesn't mean the population responsible for the other 82% stayed put. A fair portion of that 82% was recorded by players who, even in this era of expanded limits, at last came to the end of their eligibility. Others went pro, either domestically or abroad. A few simply stopped playing, even with eligibility remaining.
Every out-transfer is, of course, some other program's in-transfer. In the NCAA as a whole, these roster debits and credits balance each other symmetrically.
This picture changes slightly, however, when we look at just the six major basketball conferences. These top leagues are not only a high-value source of potential out-transfers, they're also a favored destination for hopeful in-transfers. In fact, earning consistent playing time at a major-conference program in some ways represents a relatively small pinnacle atop a much larger Division I pyramid of players.
As a result, the number of minutes that major-conference programs lose to out-transfers hasn't charted the same steep increase as in-transfer minutes in recent years. There are and will always be exceptions to this rule (keep reading), but for the most part, starters in the top conferences have less incentive to transfer out than many of their fellow Division I players.