The New York Yankees (71-41) and Boston Red Sox (55-58) swing into a 3-game set with a Friday 7:10 p.m. ET contest at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 6-4

The usually heavily-favored Yankees have lost bettors a lot of money in the last month. Beginning with back-to-back losses to the Red Sox July 9-10, New York has gone just 10-18 in its last 28 games. But how we frame where the Yanks are now should at least include the fact they have outscored foes 152-131 in the last 28 games.

The Red Sox have scuffled their way to a similar 8-19 mark since taking those July games from New York. The Boston offense has been abysmal over that stretch (.665 OPS, huge 27% strikeout rate).

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi

German (1-2, 5.09 ERA) is tabbed for his 5th start of the season. He has a 1.53 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in 17 2/3 IP.

• Coming off his best start since being activated July 21 from the IL (shoulder), holding the St. Louis Cardinals to 1 run in 5 IP Saturday
• Owns a 3.86 ERA in his last 5 starts against Boston

Eovaldi (5-3, 4.23 ERA) has notched a 1.23 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 93 2/3 IP (17 starts).

• Has a 6.20 ERA across his last 5 starts against the Yankees and current New York batters own an aggregate .816 OPS against him
• Toted a 3.34 ERA into the All-Star break, but has allowed 20 R (17 ER) in 21 IP since
• Owns a 6,81 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 35 2/3 IP at Fenway

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

• Money line: Yankees -120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+133) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -135)

Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

New York’s recent performances — losses but in close games and with analytics supporting better results — have swung the club from likely-overpriced-most-nights into value territory.

German’s recent turns have been encouraging, and he’s backed by the better bullpen. Eovaldi has had too many recent missteps.

BACK NEW YORK (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Yanks are the lean. But a better price would be needed to a assume the extra cushion PASS.

Over/Under

Both starters have been hurt by home runs. On a cooled-off, inward-breeze night at Fenway the Under is worth a watch. If the tag on 9.5 runs swings down to the -115 range, there is some value here. Otherwise PASS.

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