Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (45-66) hope to salvage a split with the Arizona Diamondbacks (50-60) in the finale of their 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Chase Field is at 3:40 p.m. ET.

Season series: Tied 3-3

The Pirates lost the first 2 games of the series 3-0 Monday and 6-4 Tuesday but bounced back with a 6-4 win Wednesday. Pittsburgh is 2-4 in its last 6 games, 5-4 in its last 9 and 5-11 in its last 16.

The Diamondbacks had their 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday but still have won 5 of their last 7 games.

Pirates at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP JT Brubaker vs. RHP Merrill Kelly

Brubaker (2-10, 4.49 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 108 1/3 IP.

  • Took the loss in an 8-6 defeat to Arizona June 3 as he allowed 6 runs (5 earned) on 8 hits over 4 innings.
  • The Pirates have lost his last 5 starts and are 7-14 when he pitches.

Kelly (10-5, 2.86 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 132 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 straight starts.
  • Is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA since the start of July.

Pirates at Diamondbacks odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Pirates +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Diamondbacks -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-135) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Pirates at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Diamondbacks 5, Pirates 2

Money line

Kelly has been Arizona’s best pitcher since the start of July and the team plays well at home and especially against teams with a losing record. While the D-Backs themselves are 10 games under .500, they are 34-26 against teams who are .500 or worse and are 31-29 at home.

The Pirates are 21-37 on the road and 27-30 against teams who are .500 or worse.

However, the -190 price tag makes it not worth the action to bet the money line PASS.

Run line/Against the spread

Ten of the Diamondbacks’ last 11 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

The Pirates do have 5 one-run losses in their last 11 losses and are 31-27 ATS away from home, but Arizona is 34-26 ATS at home, the 4th-best mark in the majors.

Ten of the Pirates’ 14 losses with Brubaker starting have been by 2 or more runs.

Take the DIAMONDBACKS -1.5 (+110).

Over/Under

Kelly’s last 5 starts have all had fewer than 8 total runs. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 himself in his last 7 starts and he goes deep into games, pitching at least 7 innings in his last 5 outings.

Arizona hasn’t scored more than 5 runs in 9 of its last 13 games.

Take UNDER 7.5 (+100).

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