The Chicago Cubs (23-31) host the St. Louis Cardinals (31-23) on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball at Wrigley Field for the rubber match of their 5-game series. First pitch is set for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.
These teams split Saturday’s doubleheader with Chicago winning the first, 6-1, then St. Louis took the second, 7-4, in extra innings.
Season series: Tied 2-2, and the Cardinals have a plus-5 run differential.
Cardinals at Cubs projected starters
RHP Adam Wainwright vs. LHP Justin Steele
Wainwright is 5-4 with a 2.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 59 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in St. Louis’ 3-2 home win vs. the San Diego Padres Tuesday with 7-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K.
- 2021 vs. the Cubs: 0-0 with 0.60 ERA (15 IP, 1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB and 12 K across 2 starts.
Steele is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 40 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Chicago’s 8-7 home win vs. the Milwaukee Brewers with 5 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 6 K.
- 2021 vs. the Cardinals: One start — an 8-5 loss in Chicago Sept. 24 — with 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
Cardinals at Cubs odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Cardinals -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Cubs +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals -1.5 (+120) | Cubs +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
Cardinals at Cubs picks and predictions
Prediction
Cubs 5, Cardinals 2
Money line
BET CUBS (+115).
Everything about this Cardinals (-140) line stinks because they have their ace on the mound Sunday vs. a Chicago starter with a plus-5.00 ERA, and St. Louis ranks 1st vs. left-handed pitching in wRC+, wOBA and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
According to Pregame.com and VegasInsider.com, a vast majority of the action is on the Cardinals, but their line hasn’t budged off the opener. This line freeze could be the oddsmakers’ way of daring the public to take more action on the Cardinals.
Also, Steele’s basic numbers are misleading, and his pitching peripherals suggest he’s due for improvement. Steele’s FIP (3.22) is more than 2 runs lower than his ERA, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity are better than the MLB average and Steele’s barrel rate is in the 98th percentile, per Statcast.
Finally, the Cubs have a significant edge in relief pitching. Chicago’s bullpen is 1st in xFIP (3.33), 3rd in K/BB rate (3.13) and 8th in WAR (1.9). While St. Louis’ bullpen has a 4.21 xFIP (ranked 24th), 2.27 K/BB rate (22nd) and 0.7 WAR (20th), according to FanGraphs.
BET 1 unit on the CUBS (+115).
Run line/Against the spread
The Cubs +1.5 (-145) run line has come down enough to consider, but maybe there’s value elsewhere. The Cardinals -1.5 (+120) are 7-5 RL as road favorites, and the first 4 games of this series have all been decided by at least 2 runs, including Saturday’s extra-inning affair. I’m not confident enough in the Cubs to sprinkle on Chicago’s alternate RL. However, since we like the Cubs to get it done, let’s LEAN CUBS FIRST 9 INNINGS (+127) instead of the chalky run line.
Over/Under
PASS.
There are several Over-friendly trends in this game including Chicago’s 12-5-2 O/U record as home underdogs, St. Louis’ 6-5-1 O/U record as road favorites and the Over cashing in 6 of the last 8 Cardinals-Cubs meetings in Chicago.
However, the weather forecast is predicting more pitcher-friendly conditions such as temperatures in the mid-to-high-50s and double-digits winds blowing in from right-center field.
PASS and stick with Chicago’s ML.
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