Seattle Mariners at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

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The Seattle Mariners (14-18) and New York Mets (22-11) open a 3-game series Friday at Citi Field. First pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mariners vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting this year and first game between the teams since the 2017 season.

The Mariners lost 2 of 3 games to the Philadelphia Phillies in their last series and have now won just 3 of their last 15 games. They rank near the middle of the league in runs (18th) and batting average (19th), while their team ERA (20th) and batting average allowed (19th) are in the same range. They have just not been able to string together wins and sit 7 games back in the AL West.

The Mets have yet to lose a single series all season, taking down the Washington Nationals and Phillies in their last 2 series. They lead the NL East by 6.5 games and own the best on-base percentage (.334) in the majors. Despite being without SP Jacob deGrom, the Mets have the fourth-best ERA (3.29) and second-lowest WHIP (1.07) in baseball.

Mariners at Mets projected starters

LHP Marco Gonzales vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Gonzales (1-4, 3.91 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.62 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 25 1/3 IP.

  • Mariners have lost 4 straight games Gonzales has started, even though he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of those games.
  • Seattle has given him very little run support lately, scoring a total of 10 runs in his last 4 starts.

Scherzer (4-1, 2.92 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.95 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.9 K/9 in 37 IP.

  • He’s tied for the NL lead with 4 wins and his 49 strikeouts rank 5th.
  • Mets are 5-1 in games started by Scherzer, with their only loss coming his last time out – 3-2 to the Phillies.

Mariners at Mets odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Mariners +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Mets -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners +1.5 (-115) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -140 | U: +112)

Mariners at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Mariners 2

Money line

Any time Scherzer is on the mound, the Mets have a great chance to win. And I feel really good about them taking down a slumping Mariners team. There isn’t much upside with taking the Mets on the money line at -230, but I would include them in a parlay because they should be able to beat Seattle with Scherzer pitching.

LEANMETS (-230), but you’ll find better value with the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets are a league-best 21-12 ATS this season and they’re once again favored heavily Friday. I don’t see Scherzer having much trouble limiting the Mariners offense, and although the Mets aren’t knocking the cover off the ball – especially against lefties (.215 BA) – they’ll score enough to cover the 1.5-run margin.

Bet the METS -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Mets have struggled against lefties this season, which could lead to a lower run total Friday. And with Scherzer getting the start, the Mariners aren’t likely to put up many runs either, since he’s allowed 4 or fewer runs in each start this season.

Bet the UNDER 6.5 (+112).

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