San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

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The Atlanta Braves (15-17) host the San Diego Padres (20-12) Friday for the start of their 3-game series at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Diego is 6-4 overall in the last 10 but lost 2 of its previous 3-game series with the Chicago Cubs Monday-Wednesday.

Atlanta is 5-5 in the last 10 games and split its previous three series with the New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets.

Season series: Tied 2-2, but San Diego has outscored Atlanta 18-12 in those meetings.

Padres at Braves projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. LHP Max Fried

Darvish is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 33 1/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Beat the Miami Marlins 3-2 May 6 with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 3 K.
  • Won vs. the Braves 2-1 April 17 with 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 8 K.
  • vs. Braves on the current roster: 2.00 FIP with a .197 expected batting average (xBA), .270 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .311 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 34.7 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 101 plate appearances (PA).

Fried is 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 0.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 37 IP across 6 starts.

  • Won vs. the Brewers 3-2 Saturday with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: Won 4-0 on a CG shutout with 3 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
  • vs. Padres on the current roster: 3.11 FIP with a .233/.270/.350 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 23.8 K% and 90.4 mph EV in 42 PA.

Padres at Braves odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Padres +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Braves -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +110 | U: -135)

Padres at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 6, Padres 3

Money line

BET the BRAVES (-170) for a two-thirds unit because it’s a little expensive vs. a Padres (+135) team I’m high on. But, Atlanta has the edge in the starting and relief pitching matchup.

Fried grades in the 92nd percentile or better in EV, chase rate and BB% (according to Statcast) and has dominated San Diego’s lineup in their two meetings. Darvish’s stuff isn’t as nasty in 2022. His current contact, outside-the-zone contact and swinging-strike rates are career-worsts.

Also, Atlanta’s bullpen is much stronger than San Diego’s. The Braves’ relievers are better by ERA, xFIP, K/BB rate, home runs allowed per 9 innings and hard-hit rate.

It’s expensive – so I wouldn’t hit it for a full unit, but the BRAVES (-170) are the right side.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering Atlanta is just 29-62 RL as home favorites since the beginning of 2021. Darvish beat the Braves in a 1-run game earlier this season, and betting Atlanta as a home favorite has a terrible return on investment.

Over/Under

Slight LEAN OVER 7.5 (+110) because there could be value in fading an obvious Under-play with two “top-of-the-rotation” starters on the hill.

Also, both starters pitched to the Under in their previous Padres-Braves outing so it zagging on that recency bias might be a sharp play.

However, Atlanta’s ML is my favorite play in this wager – so I wouldn’t go heavy on the OVER 7.5 (+110).

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