Big names dominate NBA playoff coverage for a reason: Stars tend to determine the fate of a series—and the entire postseason—more than anyone. They are the most important components for any team hoping to be more than happy-to-have-been-here-but-now-we're-gone footnotes.
This is not to say we have to always-always-always make everything about the stars. On the contrary, to do so would be counterintuitive. Even the most top-loaded roster needs capable depth to get by—fringe stars or glue guys or specialists or developing kiddies on the rise who add extra oomph.
This one is for all of them.
Extreme limitations will not be placed on our criteria for every squad's biggest X-factor. Stars will be avoided, as will primary options. Injury-related choices will generally be skirted, too. Everyone else is fair game, and with each choice, we're seeking to identify the player who can have the most important yet understated impact on their team's chances of winning any given postseason series.
Atlanta Hawks: Bogdan Bogdanovic
Health will be massive for the Atlanta Hawks entering the playoffs. Clint Capela (left knee) and John Collins (right foot) are both banged up at the moment. Neither is the pick. They're too hallmark, and harping on injuries would set a warty precedent as we journey through this rabbit hole together.
Delon Wright made his case during Atlanta's come-from-behind play-in victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers. His defensive energy is infectious.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is just too juicy of a pick. The Hawks don't necessarily have an offensive identity beyond Trae Young, but Bogie has given them a viable No. 2. After Collins went down, he closed the regular season averaging 17.8 points and 3.3 assists while canning 38.2 percent of his triples, including 36.8 percent of his pull-up threes.
Equally, if not more, critical: Atlanta won the minutes on the season that Bogdanovic logged without Young. (The backcourt combination of Bogie and Wright just seems to work.) Beating the Miami Heat in the first round shouldn't be about the minutes the Hawks play without their best player, but they need all the secondary firepower they can get when starting off the postseason against a hellfire defense. With and without Trae, Bogie represents the lion's share of their offensive depth.
Alternative X-factor: Delon Wright
Boston Celtics: Grant Williams
Robert Williams III won't return from his torn left meniscus unless the Boston Celtics make an ultra-deep playoff run. They're going to need Grant Williams in order to make that happen.
Boston is not without options in Timelord's absence. Head coach Ime Udoka has Grant Williams and Daniel Theis and can downsize to Derrick White alongside Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum plus one big. The team was also a plus-4.6 points per 100 possessions without RWIII on the floor during the regular season while preserving much of their stingy defense, minus some scorching-hot opponent three-point shooting.
This is all to say: the Celtics are not in an end-of-the-world situation. But Grant Williams does loom as the most important X-factor, if only because he figures to pick up the largest chunk of the playing-time slack. His minutes ticked up significantly following RWII's injury.
Not much should change. Williams isn't the same level of rim-runner as Timelord, but he stretches the floor with a reliable three-point stroke. And while Boston will miss RWIII's help rim protection and perimeter mobility on defense, Grant Williams does have plenty of switch to him, as well.
How well the latter plays will say a great deal about the Celtics' postseason rotation. He is not only their ticket to sustaining two-big sets but could also need to take on waaay more time at center if Udoka doesn't want to overburden Theis with backup 5 burn.
Alternative X-factor: Derrick White
Brooklyn Nets: Bruce Brown
Ben Simmons (or Ben Simmons' back) will nab this honor from others. He might be targeting a return—read: season and team debut—toward the tail end of the Brooklyn Nets' first-round matchup with the Celtics.
I can't get there. Head coach Steve Nash has already said Simmons still isn't doing anything in practice, and he's not one to provide any sort of clarity…ever. For him to say that feels telltale.
Even if it's not, a player who hasn't taken the floor in about a year and is being integrated into a completely new team headlined by two other stars predisposed to working on the ball doesn't profile as an insta-fit.
Bruce Brown is the correct answer. Really, though, there is almost no wrong answer. Anyone aside from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving will do. The Nets' depth and rotation is that ambiguous and shaky.
Going with Brown is a nod toward the scope of his role. The Nets will liberally, and necessarily, throw him on the toughest defensive covers. They may even elect to close games with him and Durant as the primary frontline members; it's not something they've done often, but it'll be on the table if Nash isn't vibing Andre Drummond or Nicolas Claxton.
Whether saddling Brown with extensive run is tenable on offense is a more complicated matter. Brooklyn should never want for scoring with Kyrie and KD, but if teams aren't scared of Brown's passing out of the short roll or his long-range shooting, they'll have easier paths to blitzing both stars.
To Brown's credit, he has knocked down 48-plus percent of his triples since early February. But his efficiency comes on less-than-modest volume (two attempts per game). The playoffs are also a different animal. If Brown isn't making plays or wide-open jumpers on offense, the Nets will find themselves in a pickle that, frankly, they don't have the alternative personnel to overcome.
Alternative X-factor: Nicolas Claxton
Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams
Nobody is picking the Chicago Bulls to beat the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. Lonzo Ball is done for the season (knee), and neither Alex Caruso (back) nor Zach LaVine (left knee) is anywhere near full strength.
Chicago's offensive shot profile, meanwhile, stands to be its own, separate issue. No team attempted a lower share of its looks from deep during the regular season, and Milwaukee's defense is built to both limit and contest two-pointers to no end.
The Bulls are better off treating this matchup as an opportunity for self-discovery. What does Nikola Vucevic have left to offer in a playoff series? How does Ayo Dosunmu hold up in the postseason? Javonte Green, too? And Coby White? Can they downsize at the 5, with Derrick Jones Jr., for any stretch of time? Should they even try?
And most importantly: What do they have in Patrick Williams?
Left wrist surgery cost him most of the regular season, but he's tantalized as an offensive accessory with 53.4 percent shooting inside the arc and a 51.7 percent clip from downtown (on finite volume). Will his efficiency stand the test of playoff defenses? And how does he look as, presumably, the person who will spend the most time guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo?
Any information, at all, will help the Bulls leading into the offseason, where they'll be tasked with identifying and/or acquiring impactful, long-term keepers on the wing.
Alternative X-factor: Ayo Dosunmu