So… the last awards watch caused a bit of a stir, huh?

The intention here is not to create controversy, nor is it to be the sole arbiter of truth with each award — that one singular person or model should be the lone basis for assessing value. The goal is to foster productive debate and broaden our collective horizons on how each trophy should be awarded. For a long time, we’ve been stuck with some combination of points, plus-minus, ice-time, reputation and ‘whose turn is it anyway’ to go with inconsistent and ever-changing criteria. 

My intention with this column has always been to rise above that with a consistent framework that can establish a worthy baseline for discussion. The order for each award as derived by GSVA is not gospel. But from it, we can create a strong short-list of candidates worthy of deeper exploration. 

That’s what this column has always been about and it’s why reading past the graphic is important. It’s also why I expanded the graphic for this edition in order to showcase the key factors worthy of consideration for each award, most of which the model considers. The end result may not make total sense to some, but at the very least there should be a better understanding of how the model reaches its conclusion.

And a place to start the conversation.

There’s just one month left in the season, meaning this is the penultimate awards watch of the season. There will be one more just before the season finishes. For now, here’s how the awards race stacks up based on my interpretation of the numbers.

Data as of April 4

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. 

Criteria: Skaters ranked by Game Score Value Added, adjusted by position

One key change you’ll notice with the graphic above: goalies, finally, and lots of defenders. For this edition, I made a change to the criteria — a positional adjustment, one that applies to the Calder Trophy as well featuring a rather simple idea via Twitter. Instead of sorting based on GSVA, the players are sorted by their percentile rank at their position. The best forward, Auston Matthews, is 4.2 standard deviations above the mean forward. The best defender, Cale Makar is 3.8 standard deviations above the mean defender. The best goaltender, Frederik Andersen (we’ll get to that), is three standard deviations above the mean goalie. 

That way, every player is in the same normalized context so as to not overrate a goalie’s relative contribution or underrate a defender’s. It helps solve two problems: “why aren’t defencemen ever considered for the Hart Trophy” and “how good does a goalie have to be to actually win the Hart Trophy.” For some, that may not still be enough. It’s easy to look at the chart and see that 6.1 wins are in fact more than 5.2 wins. That’s more than fair and there’s nothing wrong with going purely by raw value. But part of that is the nature of the position which is where the heart of the Hart debate lies. That’s something that using standard deviations should help with.

Another previous issue was too many players from the same team, an issue that should be fixed with a separate column that notes each contender’s next best teammate (again, as judged by standard deviations). That should be especially helpful for those who view value in relative terms. I personally don’t.

The last issue was written extensively about here. My opinion on the subject has not changed since and the above changes would have Aleksander Barkov as the next player on the list — and he’d be right in the mix if not for 13 games missed.

Okay, that’s enough preamble. Now for the actual awards talk.

There is some very healthy competition at the top, but the Hart Trophy is still very much Auston Matthews’ to lose — a statement he put an extra stamp on Monday night with his 52nd, 53rd AND 54th goals of the season. That, along with an assist and a 67 percent expected goals rate against the defending champions was a microcosm of his season so far: dominant goal-scoring with an exceptional two-way game. He earned a Game Score of 5.7 on the night which was more than enough to push him back above Connor McDavid for the GSVA lead… in five fewer games.