Can you believe that the first conference tournament of the 2021-22 men's college basketball season begins Monday? And that the first conference champion will be crowned in one week?
That means for the throng of teams on the NCAA tournament bubble, it's pressure-cooker season.
And with the importance of each game ratcheted up, some teams are faring much better than others.
If you're a fan of mid-major at-large bids, things are looking up. We'll focus on Murray State, VCU, St. Bonaventure and Dayton shortly, but North Texas and South Dakota State have gone quite a few weeks since last suffering a loss and will at least be candidates for a bid if they slip up in the conference championships.
If major-conference teams are more your thing, at least Creighton and Iowa State have been winning lately, and everyone has major opportunities remaining, be it in the final 10 days of the regular season or in the conference tournament.
With two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, here are the bubble teams that recently have done the most to either improve or ruin their case for a spot in the tournament. Teams are listed in no particular order, outside oscillating between "Stock Up" and "Stock Down."
In the resume section for each team, NET is the NCAA's primary sorting metric upon which all quadrant-based records are derived. RES is the resume metric and is the average of Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record. QUAL is the quality or predictive metric, and is the average of KenPom.com, Sagarin and BPI rankings.
Stock Up: Creighton Bluejays
Resume: 19-8, NET: 59, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 63.7, No. 10 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W vs. Georgetown, W at DePaul, W vs. Marquette, W at St. John's
In last week's bubble stock watch, there were so many "Stock Up" options that—for a fleeting moment—it felt like an unusually strong year for the bubble. We had Rutgers, Memphis and Michigan all surging into the field with authority, along with the usual stockpile of teams that marginally improved their dancing odds.
This week, however, obvious options for "Stock Up" status were just about nil.
One exception was Creighton.
The Bluejays have won six consecutive games. The first four were not particularly noteworthy, all coming against teams at the bottom of the Big East standings. But taking care of business against Butler, Georgetown and DePaul kept Creighton in the mix for a bid long enough for the wins over Marquette and St. John's to push this team somewhat comfortably into the field.
Neither win was massive, each hovering near the Quadrant 1-2 cut line. But the combined impact of those two wins was significant, bringing the Bluejays to 8-6 against the top two quadrants and leaving them with just one (not even all that) bad loss at home to Arizona State.
The closing stretch is tough, but even a 1-2 record against Providence (road), Connecticut (home) and Seton Hall (home) would probably get Creighton into the Big Dance.
Unfortunately, the Bluejays were dealt a huge blow in the second half against St. John's, losing Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending wrist injury. The freshman point guard was the heart and soul of that team, especially as of late, so this one feels a lot like Villanova losing Collin Gillespie in the final week of the 2020-21 regular season. Beating another quality opponent without Nembhard will be a major challenge.
But at least Creighton is trying to preserve an at-large bid as opposed to trying to play its way into position for one. Maybe it can sneak in.
Stock Down: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Resume: 21-8, NET: 43, RES: 44.5, QUAL: 40.7, No. 9 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: L vs. Miami, L at Duke, W vs. Notre Dame, L at Clemson
It's hard to believe that a 21-win team from the ACC could miss the NCAA tournament, but Wake Forest did nothing worth noting in nonconference play and is limping to the finish line in one of the weakest ACCs ever.
On the nonconference front, Wake Forest's best win came in an overtime home game against Northwestern. Its second-best win was…Charlotte on a neutral court? It's not pretty.
And then in league play, the Demon Deacons lost both of their chances against Duke and have acquired four Quadrant 2 losses (at Louisville, at Syracuse, vs. Miami, at Clemson) compared to just one Quadrant 1 win (at Virginia Tech).
The Deacs have yet to suffer a loss outside the top two quadrants, but 1-4 vs. Quadrant 1 and 6-8 against the top two quadrants isn't much of a selling point.
They looked fine for a bid two weeks ago, but the losses to Miami and Clemson have changed things considerably. And there's not a whole lot the Demon Deacons can do to improve their tournament standing until at least the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, as they close out the regular season with must-win home games against Louisville and NC State.
If current standings/projections hold, Wake Forest would be the No. 5 seed in the ACC tournament, drawing No. 4 seed North Carolina in the quarterfinals to presumably face No. 1 seed Duke in the semifinals. Usually the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game of the ACC tournament feels like a "winner makes the NCAA tournament" type of affair. But this year, the No. 4 Tar Heels against the No. 5 Demon Deacons might be the "loser goes to the NIT" showdown.