A few days ago, I looked into some of the biggest surprises from the Leafs, so today I figured I’d take a look at some of the biggest surprises in the NHL. This can include players/teams who have exceeded expectations, performed well below expectations, or some who had no expectations and still disappointed, and I’ll also try and guess if it will continue for the rest of the season. This is based on my own expectations going into the season, as well as my current evaluations, so there will probably be a few that you aren’t surprised by or don’t think shouldn’t be on this list.
Pleasant Surprise: Detroit Red Wings
The Atlantic division was probably the one division this year that I thought would be pretty easy to predict. Tampa, Toronto, Boston, and Florida would all be the dominant teams that they looked like on paper, Montreal would go back to being a mediocre team after a Cup Finals run, and Detroit, Ottawa, and Buffalo would be lottery contenders. Well, Detroit has decided otherwise, as they’ve come along and become a somewhat competitive hockey team. It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, since they have Steve Yzerman at the helm now, and as Leafs fans have learned, sometimes an injection of youth is all you need to turn a bad team into a competitive one. They’ve found that injection in their top prospects Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, as well as taking advantage of a dumb Carolina decision and bringing in Alex Nedljkovic in net. This with some already solid talent in Dylan Larkin, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Filip Hronek has turned the Wings into a competent, if not fun, team this year.
Will it continue?: Every year, there’s always one or two teams that defy analytics and make the playoffs on a lucky streak, so there’s a chance. But, if the Wings underlying numbers do come back to bite them, they’ll probably fall back down to earth a bit, since they currently sit in 30th in CF% with 45.26% and 21st in xGF% with 48.24%. Not the most sustainable numbers if they want to make the playoffs, and considering that the main reason they currently sit in a playoff spot is because the Bruins have played five fewer games, they probably find themselves out of the playoffs this year. That said, they’ve made one hell of a statement.
Disappointing Surprise: Montreal Canadiens
The Habs were the biggest surprise last year, upsetting two powerhouses in Toronto and Vegas while making a deep playoff run before looking very outmatched in the Cup Finals against Tampa Bay. Even with that run, had this team brought everyone back fully healthy, I still wouldn’t expect them to make the playoffs. And then they lost their shutdown center Philip Danault to free agency, their young draft pick that they reached for solely because they needed a center in Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an offer sheet, their shutdown defenseman in Shea Weber to injury, and Carey Price, who was arguably the reason they made that deep run, still hasn’t played a game this year for extremally valid reasons. Those losses made it seem very unlikely that we’d see the Habs return to the playoffs, but even then, I don’t think I expected them to be *this* bad. Even with an average lineup, they were always a strong possession team, and yet this season they sit 25th in CF% with 47.02% and 30th in xGF% with 45.13%. They’ve even made Brendan Gallagher bad this season! And even then, the biggest surprise is still that they didn’t use their Cup Final run as an excuse to keep GM Marc Bergevin around for another decade and actually fired him!