The Cincinnati Reds (1-1) and Atlanta Braves (1-1) continue their 4-game series Saturday at Truist Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Reds vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: 1-1
Cincinnati won the opener 6-3 Thursday with 3B Brandon Drury’s 3-run, 6th-inning homer being the key blow. Atlanta responded with a 7-6 victory Friday. Braves first-year closer Kenley Jansen gave up 3 ER on 3 H and 3 BB over 1 IP in his team debut Friday.
Reds at Braves: Projected starters
RHP Vladimir Gutierrez vs. RHP Kyle Wright
Gutierrez is Cincy’s projected starter Saturday. He was 9-6 with a 4.74 ERA in 2021 (114 IP, 60 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 22 starts his rookie season.
- Career vs. Braves: 1-1, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB, 10 K in 2 starts
- Vs. Braves on current roster: 7.20 FIP with a .280 batting average (BA), .363 wOBA, .541 expected slugging percentage, 14.8 K% and 89.6 mph exit velocity (EV) in 27 plate appearances
Wright takes the mound for the Braves Saturday. He spent most of 2021 pitching for Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate. Wright pitched in almost as much in the World Series (5 2/3 IP) as the regular season (6 1/3 IP) last year.
- Last season: 0-1, 9.95 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.90 WHIP, 7.1 BB/9, 8.5 K/9 in 2 starts
- Never faced Reds before
Reds at Braves odds, spread and lines
- Money line (ML): Reds +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Braves -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-140) | Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Reds at Braves prediction and picks
Prediction
Reds 6, Braves 4
Money line
SPRINKLE on the REDS (+145), if at all, with the planning of hitting their spread harder. Gutierrez made 2 quality starts versus the Braves last season and Atlanta (-180) is too expensive with Wright on the mound.
Most bettors are assuming we see the Wright from the World Series where he surrendered just 1 ER in 2 appearances. But Wright hasn’t lived up to his first-round potential in his 21 career big-league, regular-season games.
Run line/Against the spread
BET REDS +1.5 (-140) instead of or heavier than their ML because the Braves are just 23-53 RL as home favorites since the beginning of last season and Cincy is 33-17 RL as a road underdog.
Furthermore, Atlanta’s bullpen was its biggest question mark entering 2022 and it hasn’t looked sharp in the first 2 games. The Reds moved a couple of productive bats this offseason, but there’s still pop in their lineup.
A bulk of my handicap here is a hunch that the Braves -1.5 (+115) are overpriced with an unproven starter on the mound.
TAKE the REDS +1.5 (-140).
Over/Under
LEAN to the OVER 9.5 (-115).
The Braves are 46-36-8 O/U at home since 2021, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 14 mph winds blowing out to left-center field and I’m iffy on both starters.
However, the total feels sharp, plus a vast majority of the market is backing the Over and it’s rarely profitable in sports betting to be on the same side as the public.