St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

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The St. Louis Cardinals (35-51) and Miami Marlins (51-37) play the finale of a 4-game set Thursday at loanDepot park. First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1).

Season series: Marlins lead 3-0

The Cardinals dropped Wednesday’s game 10-9 and it was the epitome of their season. They trailed 5-0 after 2 innings and stormed back to tie it in the 5th. Miami took the lead St. Louis tied it and Miami got the lead again. OF Jordan Walker hit a 2-run home run to take the lead in the 9th which should have been the highlight of his career and the Cards blow the save in the 9th and lose. They’re 11-19 over the last 30 games and 12 1/2 games out in the weak NL Central.

Miami has been really impressive for a young team. The Marlins probably need a power bat or 2 at the trade deadline but they can play. They’re 21-9 over the last 30 games. They’re 8 games out in the NL East but they hold a 3 1/2-game lead on the top Wild-Card spot.

Cardinals at Marlins projected starters

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Eury Perez

Flaherty (5-5 4.60 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP 4.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 86 innings.

Last start: Win 6 IP 0 ER 4 H 2 BB 4 K Saturday against the New York Yankees
3 career starts vs. Marlins: 1-2 3.50 ERA 1.33 WHIP 20 K in 18 IP

Perez (5-2 2.47 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP 2.9 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 47 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss 1/3 IP 6 ER 7 H 0 BB 0 K Saturday against the Atlanta Braves
Had a 1.34 ERA before that miserable start
Great at home: 3-0 1.01 ERA 0.86 WHIP 36 K in 26 2/3 IP; 2-2 4.35 ERA 1.45 WHIP 18 K in 20 2/3 IP on road

Cardinals at Marlins odds

Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Marlins -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Marlins -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Cardinals at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5 Cardinals 3

Moneyline

The Cardinals routinely struggle against pitchers they see for the 1st time and Perez has been phenomenal outside of his last start. It should serve as a piece of humble pie and he should contain the drowning Cards. Yeah it’s hard to beat a team 4 straight times but this Cardinals team continues to find ways to lose.

Take the MARLINS -125.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m going to shy away from the RL here because St. Louis has kept it within a run in 2 of the 3 games in this series but they’re too expensive to do it again.

One prop I love is EURY PEREZ OVER 15.5 OUTS (-125). He went 6 innings in 3 straight starts before he was shelled in his last outing. He’ll dominate the Cards for at least 1 out into the 6th inning.

Over/Under

We had the Over cash in the 1st 3 games of this series and I really want to lean toward the Under but I don’t trust St. Louis’ bullpen to keep it Under 8.

Instead let’s make a small reachable parlay for some plus-money. Take the MARLINS + EURY PEREZ 5 K’s (+120). Before his last start he had 5+ K’s in 5 straight starts. Again the Cards can’t hit pitchers they see for the first time – especially ones with Perez’s stuff.