Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Miami Heat (13-15) visit Paycom Center to battle the Oklahoma City Thunder (11-16) Wednesday. Tip is set for 8 p.m. ET.

The Heat beat the Indiana Pacers 87-82 on the road Monday. They did manage to cover as 3.5-point favorites, snapping a 4-game against-the-spread (ATS) losing skid. That win pushed Miami’s ATS record on the season to 9-18-1. The return of G Jimmy Butler after a short absence has helped things as he is averaging a team-high 21.7 points per game this season, although he’ll miss Wednesday’s game for injury management.

The Thunder lost to the Dallas Mavericks 121-114 Monday, covering as 8.5-point underdogs. Oklahoma City is now 16-11 ATS this season and has covered 5 of its last 7 games. It is led by G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.2 points per game.

Moneyline (ML): Heat -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Thunder +115 (bet $100 to win $115
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +2.5 (-110) | Thunder +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Heat at Thunder key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (knee) out
G Tyler Herro (ankle) probable
G Gabe Vincent (out) knee

Thunder

F Jeremiah Earl-Robinson (ankle) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Thunder picks and predictions

Prediction

Thunder 112, Heat 108

Moneyline

BET THUNDER (+115).

With Butler out, the Thunder at home should be able to expose the Heat’s weak defensive backcourt.

OKC is 6-5 at home this season and the Heat are 4-6 without Butler in the lineup. The last time he missed a game they lost by 20 points at home against the Detroit Pistons.

Butler is the team’s leading scorer and a key defensive piece. SGA, without Butler and against an aging G Kyle Lowry, should be able to have his way as he has all season.

Given the absence of Butler and the OKC success at home, back the THUNDER (+115).

Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Thunder moneyline odds more than their spread, so I’d play that given the plus-money odds there.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 223.5 (-115).

The Heat may struggle to contain SGA, but they still have one of the best rim protectors in the league, C Bam Adebayo, in the paint. He should be able to have an impact defensively.