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While we only went 1-2 with our Dog House underdog picks last week, all 3 games came down to the wire. We’re aiming to have a kennel full of ‘dogs barking this week, so let’s see which underdog teams we think can claw their way to a cover on Sunday’s slate.
With byes for the Bills, Eagles and Vikings this week there aren’t as many favorites available to fade — but we will again target those who might just be overrated.
Let’s take a look at our best underdog bets for Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 (-110) vs Kansas City Chiefs
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Last year defenses played a ton of 2-high shell coverage against the Chiefs, which handcuffed Patrick Mahomes and made them much easier to defend from the top down. Besides Travis Kelce, there’s not one primary weapon to focus on this season — which allows Mahomes to take what the defense gives him. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Kansas City has the most efficient offense in the league. However, the Chiefs will now take on one of the league’s best defenses on Sunday.
Mahomes has historically been stellar against zone coverages and has the highest QBR against zone this season, making secondary play even more paramount in this one. With the 49ers set to get a bunch of starters back on defense this week, they should be equipped to slow down the Chiefs attack. On the other side, Kansas City is vulnerable on defense — especially its secondary, which is also a little banged up. Say what you want about Jimmy G, but the Niners’ quarterback is a resounding 13-3 ATS as an underdog in his career. If San Francisco can grab an early lead, it is a live ‘dog in this spot. That is also the belief of our Jared Smith, whose reasoning is on display in our full Chiefs vs 49ers predictions.
Detroit Lions +7 (-110) vs Dallas Cowboys
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
There hasn’t been a better time to buy-low on the Lions after they got demolished by the Patriots in their last contest. It looks like New England’s defense could be elite, and Detroit was able to use the bye week to regroup. The Lions’ other losses were all very close games, with each decided by 4 points or fewer. Detroit could just as easily be 4-1 right now if a few balls had bounced a different way; that’s life in the NFL.
It looks like D’Andre Swift is going to return on Sunday, which will be a massive boost for this Lions offense and quarterback Jared Goff. Amon-Ra St. Brown was dealing with an ankle injury before the bye as well and he should be back to 100 percent here, which bolsters the passing game. Offensive line is one of the team’s biggest strengths, so if anyone is able to block Dallas’ intimidating defensive front it could be this motivated Lions team. When you throw in the fact that Dak Prescott is likely to be pretty rusty after not having played in 6 weeks, there’s a lot to like about the Lions here.
Cleveland Browns +6.5 (-110) vs Baltimore Ravens
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Browns got out to a 2-1 start but have since lost three straight games, including a drubbing to the Patriots. The Ravens are just 2-3 in their last 5 games, having not faired well with holding leads. Three of the Browns’ defeats came by a combined total of 6 points, so it’s a good spot to take the opportunity and grab nearly a touchdown in this divisional game. The Ravens aren’t anything to be afraid of, as they continue to falter down the stretch after holding double-digit leads. The Baltimore locker room appears to be dealing with turmoil, as several players have openly aired frustrations with the coaching staff recently.
Cleveland’s struggles have been a bit overblown, and some of that has to do with a difficult schedule. On the other hand, the Ravens have lost 2-of-3 games with their one win in that span coming at home by just 2 points. After a scorching hot start, Lamar Jackson is averaging fewer than 6 yards per attempt and has more interceptions than touchdowns over the lsat 3 weeks. The Browns’ style of play is conducive to keeping the clock moving and the game close, their debacle against the Patriots notwithstanding. Don’t overreact to one ugly loss and lose sight of Cleveland’s talent and ability on paper. This is a rivalry game and we are expecting a close contest.