The St. Louis Cardinals (38-30) head to American Family Field Monday to start a 4-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (38-30) at 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
St. Louis lost the rubber match of their 3-game interleague series at the Boston Red Sox 6-4 Sunday, but the Cardinals are 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games.
Milwaukee swept the Reds in a 3-game series in Cincinnati last weekend, but the Brewers are just 5-5 SU in the last 10.
The season series between the NL Central rivals is tied 4-4, but St. Louis has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings.
Cardinals at Brewers projected starters
RHP Miles Mikolas vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Mikolas 5-4 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 82 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: Won 9-1 at home June 14 vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates with 8 2/3 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 1 H, 1 BB and 6 K. He allowed his 1st hit with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning.
- 2022 vs. the Brewers: 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 7 ER, 2 HR, 2 BB and 13 K in 2 starts.
Burnes is 4-4 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.4 K/9 in 78 2/3 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: Won 10-2 Wednesday at the New York Mets with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 8 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: One start, an 8-0 win at St. Louis May 29 with 7 scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 11 K.
Cardinals at Brewers odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Brewers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Brewers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Cardinals at Brewers picks and predictions
Prediction
Brewers 6, Cardinals 2
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the BREWERS (-175) because they have been steamed up by sharp action and a decisive edge in the pitching matchup.
Nearly 80% of the money is on the Brew Crew whereas 65% of the bets placed are on the Cardinals (+140), per Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the cash column of the betting splits since professional bettors are putting up bigger units than your average Joe. Also, Milwaukee’s ML has climbed from the -155 opening number.
Also, starters typically struggle in the game after throwing a no-hitter. While Mikolas technically didn’t complete a no-no, he went 26 outs without allowing a hit and will struggle against a Milwaukee lineup that’s roughed him up once this season.
On the other hand, Burnes’ numbers vs. St. Louis’s lineup are outrageous. Burnes has a 41.5% K% and 82.0 mph exit velocity with a .169/.209/.240 expected batting average, wOBA and slugging percentage slash line in 106 plate appearances vs. active Cardinals hitters, according to Statcast.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Although I’m confident in betting Milwaukee’s ML, there isn’t a big enough gap between these two teams to “sprinkle” on the Brewers -1.5 (+125).
Also, the Cardinals +1.5 (-155) are 13-8 RL as road underdogs and the Brew Crew is 11-15 RL home favorites.
Over/Under
Slight LEAN to the OVER 7.5 (-112) because St. Louis’s lineup is far less productive vs. right-handed pitching and Burnes dominates the Cardinals.
But, St. Louis is 5-0 O/U in the last 5 games and 8-4-1 O/U in Mikolas’ 13 starts and Milwaukee is 4-0 O/U in Burnes’ last 4 starts as a favorite.
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