The No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks head to Chase Center Thursday with their season on the brink to play the No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Golden State leads the best-of-7 series 3-1. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Dallas staved off elimination with a 119-109 win in Tuesday’s Game 4. The Mavs outshot the Warriors from everywhere on the floor and Dallas All-Star PG Luka Doncic had game-highs in points (30), rebounds (14) and assists (9).
Golden State is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in this series with a plus-8.2 net rating and the Over/Under (O/U) is 2-2.
Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Warriors -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-105) | Warriors -6.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Warriors key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Warriors
- F Andre Iguodala (back) out
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
- SF Otto Porter Jr. (foot) questionable
Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 109, Mavericks 105
Money line
PASS.
The Warriors should close this series out at home, but Golden State (-300) is too pricey for an outright wager.
The bottom line is what the Mavericks did to get to the Western Conference Finals isn’t working against the Warriors. Dallas went small vs. its first 2 playoff opponents and exposed their opponent’s slow frontcourt defense.
When the Mavs go small in this series, the Warriors just crush them in the paint. If defenses are giving up paint points to Golden State, then backcourts naturally sag off shooters, which is the worst thing you can do against Warriors PG Stephen Curry and SG Klay Thompson.
Golden State (-300) isn’t a lock because Doncic is good enough to steal one on the road in this series and the Mavericks’ defense is good enough to force the Warriors into an off-shooting night.