Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series tips off Monday when the No. 1 seed Miami Heat host the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is 7:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the 76ers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami pulled off a gentleman’s sweep of the No. 8 seed Atlanta Hawks by beating them 97-94 in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home without SF Jimmy Butler, whose Game 1 status for this series is up in the air.
Philly blew out the No. 6 seed Toronto Raptors 132-97 in Thursday’s Game 6 on the road, but lost MVP finalist Joel Embiid, who suffered a fractured orbital bone and concussion in the fourth quarter. Embiid has already been ruled out for Games 1 and 2.
These teams tied 2-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in their regular-season series and the total was 1-3 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.
- Money line (ML): 76ers +270 (bet $100 to win $270) | Heat -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
- Against the spread: 76ers +7.5 (-115) | Heat -7.5 (-107)
- Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
76ers at Heat key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) out
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (knee) probable
- SG Tyler Herro (chest) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
- SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
Prediction
Heat 112, 76ers 101
Money line
PASS.
The Heat (-360) are 28-11 SU as home favorites with a plus-5.4 margin of victory this season and the 76ers (-360) are 8-8 SU as road underdogs with a minus-3.0 margin of victory.
More importantly, Philly is missing Embiid who’s going to be All-NBA and was sixth in on/off net rating at plus-11.5 points per 100 possessions during the regular season.
The Sixers upset the Heat March 21 on the second of a back-to-back as 8-point home underdogs when resting both SG James Harden and Embiid. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra will apply lessons learned from that meeting and Philly’s short-handed strategy in Game 1.
However, I wouldn’t pay -360 for any NBA ML favorite so PASS.