If there is one game people want to see this weekend it is this matchup between Baltimore and Buffalo. Sure, the Ravens ran roughshod on the Bills in Week 4, 35-10 as 2.5-point home favorites.
In that game, Buffalo’s defense was battered by injuries and Baltimore was desperate, barely surviving 28-25 at Dallas the week prior after an 0-2 start.
No question, this matchup is worthy of being the AFC Championship Game and we’re lucky enough to get it a week early. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NFL odds from the top sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Ravens -1 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 19, 2025 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
The Quarterbacks
Though it is close to impossible to ignore the years Joe Burrow and Jared Goff had with their teams, the best quarterback discussion from the midpoint of the season was, in no particular order, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
Neither team would be in this position without their QB and the one element that cannot be ignored, both widened the scope of their skills this season. Jackson had 41 TD passes and measly FOUR interceptions which is hard to place into perspective. And he added four more running scampers into the end zone.
By comparison, Allen looked like he had an off year with 28 TD tosses and a half dozen picks. But when you include 12 touchdown runs the numbers start to even out.
Based on the numbers and what we saw this season it makes perfect sense these were the top signal callers in QBR ratings. Each showed more discipline in running their offenses. That came about by having not just a good running game, but exceptional ones with the Ravens #1 and the Bills #9.
Even with all the accolades, the winner of this battle will receive the praise and move to the next round and the loser will again have to answer why his team came up short of a Super Bowl.
Baltimore’s Keys to Moving On
If Lamar is the key to Baltimore’s success Sunday, the Ravens’ house comes with a set of keys which includes Derrick Henry. For those who thought Henry was on the downside of his career, he proved what he could do when trading a Tennessee offensive line for Baltimore’s.
Henry opens everything up, particularly in the postseason, where running the ball effectively broadens the entire playbook no matter the weather. Not having WR Zay Flowers does matter but if Henry is running and Jackson can find Mark Andrews and other receivers, Baltimore’s offense is nearly unstoppable.
If you watched the Ravens’ defense, especially against the pass early, you would have assumed they brought in 11 new starters to close the season. After being last in yards allowed after four games, Baltimore sits at #10, thanks to a remarkable turnaround. Players got more comfortable in the new scheme and a big change was taking the best safety in the NFL, Kyle Hamilton, away from near the line of scrimmage and back in a free safety position, it gelled the defense.
Hamilton will look to be a factor against Buffalo.
Buffalo’s Keys to Moving On
Allen’s increased patience in the passing game and throwing the ball away instead of forcing throws makes the Bills offense more lethal because they can elongate possessions as we witnessed last week. The best way to stop Jackson and Henry is to have them wear parkas or jackets on the sideline. (The same holds for Baltimore against Allen.) The consistent threat of RB James Cook as a runner and pass-catcher means the defense has to know where he is, which opens more running lanes for Allen.
While Allen will take his deep shots, he has seven interchangeable receivers that he can trust depending on the play and situation, which places stress on the opposing defenses trying to guard everyone. Khalil Shakir is the top threat, be it getting a first down or hauling in a 50-yard Allen heave.
Buffalo lacks a top-level defense, being more of bend don’t break variety. The Ravens have given up 21.2 PPG, yet the Bills are right behind them at 21.6 PPG. The Bills stop troops will have to win the majority of first and third downs. The latter is helped by permitting two yards or less on first down to set up a pass rush on third and long.
Who Is the Right Side for the Ravens vs. Bills?
Though the weather forecast could change by game time, currently, the opening quarter appears in the teens and dropping, with winds around 20 MPH.
That would mean focusing on running a slippery pigskin and the short-passing offense to move the chains. Each squad is equally equipped to handle this and has the weapons.
On defense, Baltimore now appears physically stronger and more stout against the run and they are less vulnerable to the deep throws now compared to two/three months ago. We’ll give a slight edge to the Ravens and call the offenses a push.
Both coaches only want to see their kickers kicking extra points because Highmark Stadium has tricky winds which gives the Bills K Tyler Bass a modest edge.
One cannot overlook Buffalo being 9-0 SU at home. Nonetheless, John Harbaugh’s club is 6-2 SU and ATS since dropping the season lid-lifter at Kansas City.
This sets up a close, hard-fought battle with a case to be made either way. Yet, the Bills are 0-5 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games and Baltimore is 13-1 SU against teams scoring 24 or more points a game.
NFL Pick: Ravens -1 (-110) at Bet365
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