Since there’s only one NBA game on tonight’s slate, many bettors will focus on college basketball for the night. Therefore, I asked the AI Model for its favorite three bets in college basketball. Here’s what you should consider at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Dayton -11.5 (-110)
- Clemson -2.5 (-110)
- James Madison/Wake Forest Under 136.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
UNLV Rebels vs. Dayton Flyers
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UD Arena
The AI Model thinks Dayton will cover an 11.5-point spread with a 12-point win at home over UNLV. Consider Dayton as one of your top plays.
UNLV Can’t Defend The Three!
This season, the UNLV Rebels have seen teams shoot 36.5% from downtown against them. They have also allowed 34.1% of offensive rebounds. Ultimately, UNLV allows a high rate of three-pointers made. But when those threes don’t fall, they also allow many second-chance opportunities to the opposition.
It’s not a good recipe for success if you’re UNLV. Beyond that, the Rebels also foul at a higher rate, allowing teams to get to the foul line more frequently and earn points with the time stopped.
Dayton shoots nearly 72% from the foul line. The Flyers have also hit 37.7% from three and 57.8% from inside the arc. Dayton is lethal offensively and will prove it against UNLV tonight.
Limited Second Chances For UNLV
UNLV struggles on the defensive glass and the offensive glass. The Rebels have earned only 28% of offensive rebounds and have scored just 48.3% from inside the arc.
Dayton isn’t the best team at defending inside, but UNLV ranks 252nd in that category. Furthermore, Dayton has held teams to 24.5% of offensive rebounds. The Flyers should win the most significant categories, resulting in a major win.
The Pick
Grab Dayton at -11.5. The Flyers look really good on paper.
NCAAB Pick: Dayton -11.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Colonial Life Arena
The AI Model thinks Clemson will escape South Carolina with a 69-66 victory on the road. Clemson is a 2.5-point favorite but is expected to win by three. Take Clemson here.
Clemson Will Limit Turnovers
The most important thing in basketball is limiting turnovers. This gives a team more opportunities to shoot and score. Clemson will do that against South Carolina. The Tigers have only turned the ball over 15.8% of the time, while South Carolina has earned 15.8% of turnovers. Clemson will get shots up, where they’ve already shot 37.5% from three and 51% from inside the arc.
The Tigers could be better inside. However, they’ve been red-hot from three, which should help.
What If This Is A Close Game?
South Carolina doesn’t do two key factors well. The Gamecocks have earned just 28.8% of offensive rebounds and shot just 66.7% from the foul line. That’s not ideal in a potentially close game. Down the stretch, I wouldn’t want to be betting on South Carolina.
Additionally, the Gamecocks have seen their shots blocked 12% of the time and have allowed 11.1% of steals.
The Pick
Let’s roll with Clemson per the AI Model.
NCAAB Pick: Clemson -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
James Madison Dukes vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at LJVM Coliseum
The AI Model suggests Wake Forest and James Madison will combine for 136 pints. However, you can find 136.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, meaning the Under has some value in this game.
Wake Forest Can Score Inside Easily!
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons aren’t shooting at a high percentage from downtown. However, they’re still shooting 53% from inside the arc. The problem here is that Wake Forest is still taking a lot of threes. The Demon Deacons rank 99th in 3PA/FGA, but those threes just aren’t going down.
They’d have more success inside the arc, but they’re not taking enough shots down there. So, while Wake Forest can score points easily inside, they’re not doing it enough. That will help keep James Madison in this low-scoring game.
Give The Demon Deacons Defense Credit
Wake Forest’s defense is certainly the better in this game. The Demon Deacons have held teams to 31.1% from three and 44.5% from inside the arc.
While James Madison will earn second-chance points, it’s still hard to imagine James Madison shooting well enough from the field to help push this game over the total. The Demon Deacons don’t even foul that often.
The Pick
Let’s ride the Under 136.5 here.
NCAAB Pick: James Madison/Wake Forest Under 136.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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